Showing posts with label NE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NE. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Week 2 Results

NFLSim had another great week- even greater because it was only the second week of the season. Straight up picks went 9-7 (56.3%) overall. On the surface that's pretty disappointing, but check out how those wins are distributed within the confidence intervals. 50% confidence picks went 5-4 (55.6%) and 60% confidence picks went 3-2 (60%). Missed the 70% game (MIA over IND), that goes down as the most disappointing game of the week :(. The 80% game, DEN over CLE went pretty well.

The picks against the spread had another amazing week. Mia +4 was a tie so I left it out. Overall ATS went 10-5 (66.7%). 50% confidence games went 3-3 (50%), 60% confidence games went 3-1 (75%), 70% confidence games went 4-1 (80%). Come on. You can't argue with that.


That being said, O/U picks were a total debacle at 5-10 (33.3%). NFLSim was 50-50 on the PHI-NO O/U.


More analysis under the numbers...



STRAIGHT UP


CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
9
5
55.56%
60-69
5
3
60.00%
70-79
1
0
0.00%
80-89
1
1
100.00%
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
16
9
56.25%




ATS



CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
6
3
50.00%
60-69
4
3
75.00%
70-79
5
4
80.00%
80-89
0
0
---
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
15
10
66.67%




O/U



CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
9
4
44.44%
60-69
5
1
20.00%
70-79
1
0
0.00%
80-89
0
0
---
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
15
5
33.33%

Best game of the week: HOU +7 to win straight up against TEN at 54%... there's a moneymaker.
     Runner up: NYJ +4 to win straight up against NE at 67%... take THAT Brady.
Game I cried after: IND at MIA... I wanted it as much for Miami as I wanted it for me.
The game that no one saw coming: CIN beat GB... huh?
Worst pick of the week: JAX -3.5 ...

Last week's 'CLE at DEN' analysis predicted a fairly even match up with the expectation that DEN would take control on the ground and in the red zone. Buckhalter and Moreno took 76 and 75 yards a piece, with a TD for Buckhalter. Denver went 2-4 in the red zone w/ 2 TDs, Cleveland went 0-1. Denver dominated the air for most of the game.

Stay tuned for more predictions, more analyses, and more surprises next week!

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Superbowl XLII Bets

Here are hypothetical bets that would have been placed on the Super Bowl. I've used alternative spreads in addition to the normal spread to add some extra betting opportunities. Also the weird bet amounts come from an algorithm I developed which is used to determine bet size based on predicted %, payout, and bankroll. Sometimes it even has you on both sides of a bet, hedging yourself. Very interesting... here they are: (also bet amounts are in terms of percentages of your bankroll)

In order of best bet to good bet, starting with single bets.

Over/Under:
Under 53.5: 82%
Payout: 1.91
Bet Amount: 12.98
Win: 24.80

Spreads:
NYG +17.5: 77%
Payout: 1.36
Bet Amount: 10.75
Win: 14.62

NYG +15.5: 72%
Payout: 1.5
Bet Amount: 9.54
Win: 14.31

NE Win: 67%
Payout: 1.24
Bet Amount: 7.87
Win: 9.76

NYG +11.5: 63%
Payout: 1.91
Bet Amount: 7.81
Win: 14.91

NYG +7.5: 54%
Payout: 2.4
Bet Amount: 6.23
Win: 14.96

NYG +5.5: 44%
Payout: 2.85
Bet Amount: 4.36
Win: 12.42

NE -5.5: 56%
Payout: 1.36
Bet Amount: 4.23
Win: 5.75

Parlays:
Under 53.5, NYG +17.5: 63%
Payout: 2.6
Bet Amount: 8.76
Win: 22.75

Under 53.5, NYG +15.5: 59%
Payout: 2.87
Bet Amount: 8.01
Win: 22.93

Under 53.5, NYG +11.5: 52%
Payout: 3.65
Bet Amount: 6.87
Win: 25.07

Under 53.5, NE Win: 56%
Payout: 2.37
Bet Amount: 6.84
Win: 16.21

Under 53.5, NYG +7.5: 44%
Payout: 4.58
Bet Amount: 5.75
Win: 26.35

Summary:
After looking at the different bets, it becomes clear that the most likely outcome of the game was a close, low scoring affair. While NE was still predicted to win, their slim margin of victory opened up a myriad of betting opportunities.

The numerical results:
Had you started the day off with $100, by the end of the day you'd have $193.12 and a smile on your face.