Showing posts with label Sim Capper. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sim Capper. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Week 2 Results

NFLSim had another great week- even greater because it was only the second week of the season. Straight up picks went 9-7 (56.3%) overall. On the surface that's pretty disappointing, but check out how those wins are distributed within the confidence intervals. 50% confidence picks went 5-4 (55.6%) and 60% confidence picks went 3-2 (60%). Missed the 70% game (MIA over IND), that goes down as the most disappointing game of the week :(. The 80% game, DEN over CLE went pretty well.

The picks against the spread had another amazing week. Mia +4 was a tie so I left it out. Overall ATS went 10-5 (66.7%). 50% confidence games went 3-3 (50%), 60% confidence games went 3-1 (75%), 70% confidence games went 4-1 (80%). Come on. You can't argue with that.


That being said, O/U picks were a total debacle at 5-10 (33.3%). NFLSim was 50-50 on the PHI-NO O/U.


More analysis under the numbers...



STRAIGHT UP


CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
9
5
55.56%
60-69
5
3
60.00%
70-79
1
0
0.00%
80-89
1
1
100.00%
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
16
9
56.25%




ATS



CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
6
3
50.00%
60-69
4
3
75.00%
70-79
5
4
80.00%
80-89
0
0
---
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
15
10
66.67%




O/U



CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
9
4
44.44%
60-69
5
1
20.00%
70-79
1
0
0.00%
80-89
0
0
---
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
15
5
33.33%

Best game of the week: HOU +7 to win straight up against TEN at 54%... there's a moneymaker.
     Runner up: NYJ +4 to win straight up against NE at 67%... take THAT Brady.
Game I cried after: IND at MIA... I wanted it as much for Miami as I wanted it for me.
The game that no one saw coming: CIN beat GB... huh?
Worst pick of the week: JAX -3.5 ...

Last week's 'CLE at DEN' analysis predicted a fairly even match up with the expectation that DEN would take control on the ground and in the red zone. Buckhalter and Moreno took 76 and 75 yards a piece, with a TD for Buckhalter. Denver went 2-4 in the red zone w/ 2 TDs, Cleveland went 0-1. Denver dominated the air for most of the game.

Stay tuned for more predictions, more analyses, and more surprises next week!

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Week 1 Picks

Ok, I couldn't resist. Here some week 1 picks. These are based on preseason data, they are for fun only. I don't recommend using these for monetary purposes

This spreadsheet holds all of the picks and stats in nice, easy-to-read tables. If it doesn't work or if a different format makes more sense, let me know. Keep checking back because this sheet will be updated throughout the week. If you don't see a game up on Wednesday, check it again on Friday.

(The picks are highlighted, everything else is for your fantasy team)
Week 1 Stats & Picks



Again, this is based on preseason data which is not a good indicator of the regular season.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Update 2

Black Box Sports is now Sim Capper.

All of the website urls (blackboxsports.blogspot.com, nflblackbox.blogspot.com, nbablackbox.blogspot.com) still work and will still take you where you want to go. But now the main Black Box Sports site can be accessed by the url www.simcapper.com.

The new email is simcapper@gmail.com.

Jonathan
The Sim Capper