Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Week 2 Results

NFLSim had another great week- even greater because it was only the second week of the season. Straight up picks went 9-7 (56.3%) overall. On the surface that's pretty disappointing, but check out how those wins are distributed within the confidence intervals. 50% confidence picks went 5-4 (55.6%) and 60% confidence picks went 3-2 (60%). Missed the 70% game (MIA over IND), that goes down as the most disappointing game of the week :(. The 80% game, DEN over CLE went pretty well.

The picks against the spread had another amazing week. Mia +4 was a tie so I left it out. Overall ATS went 10-5 (66.7%). 50% confidence games went 3-3 (50%), 60% confidence games went 3-1 (75%), 70% confidence games went 4-1 (80%). Come on. You can't argue with that.


That being said, O/U picks were a total debacle at 5-10 (33.3%). NFLSim was 50-50 on the PHI-NO O/U.


More analysis under the numbers...



STRAIGHT UP


CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
9
5
55.56%
60-69
5
3
60.00%
70-79
1
0
0.00%
80-89
1
1
100.00%
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
16
9
56.25%




ATS



CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
6
3
50.00%
60-69
4
3
75.00%
70-79
5
4
80.00%
80-89
0
0
---
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
15
10
66.67%




O/U



CONFIDENCE
GAMES
CORRECT
% CORRECT
50-59
9
4
44.44%
60-69
5
1
20.00%
70-79
1
0
0.00%
80-89
0
0
---
90-100
0
0
---
TOTAL
15
5
33.33%

Best game of the week: HOU +7 to win straight up against TEN at 54%... there's a moneymaker.
     Runner up: NYJ +4 to win straight up against NE at 67%... take THAT Brady.
Game I cried after: IND at MIA... I wanted it as much for Miami as I wanted it for me.
The game that no one saw coming: CIN beat GB... huh?
Worst pick of the week: JAX -3.5 ...

Last week's 'CLE at DEN' analysis predicted a fairly even match up with the expectation that DEN would take control on the ground and in the red zone. Buckhalter and Moreno took 76 and 75 yards a piece, with a TD for Buckhalter. Denver went 2-4 in the red zone w/ 2 TDs, Cleveland went 0-1. Denver dominated the air for most of the game.

Stay tuned for more predictions, more analyses, and more surprises next week!

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