The early games were ugly. The late games picked up a bit to end the week at 7-9 (43.8%). Yes, that's pretty bad - but it's only one week. On the season, NFLSim is still 28-19 (59.6%), ATS. There aren't too many handicappers out there at 60% over 47 games ATS. Straight up and O/U picks also had mediocre results this week. SU picks were 9-7 (56.3%); not great but the distribution of accuracy over confidence made me happy. Again, O/U picks were bad at 8-8 (50%). Just disregard them for now. I've check with other handicappers and I've looked around a bit and it seems that many experts are having trouble with those picks.
More analysis under the numbers...
Season Results
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3 | 37.50% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2 | 66.67% |
| 70-79 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 80-89 | 3 | 2 | 66.67% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 9 | 56.25% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3 | 60% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 3 | 50% |
| 70-79 | 5 | 1 | 20% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 7 | 43.75% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4 | 50% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| 70-79 | 5 | 3 | 60% |
| 80-89 | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 8 | 50% |
Best Game of the Week: IND at ARI -2.5, IND straight up win.
Biggest Disappointment: WAS -6 at DET... Washington blew it or Vegas blew the line.
Worst Pick of the Week: WAS to win at 83%
Reactions to last week's game analyses:
Monday Night Matchup
NFLSim was almost dead on with Dallas' play selection. NFLSim said 50/50 pass/rush, the actual game went 35/32. Romo had a few big completions but no TD's. A big rush game was predicted and Dallas ran for over 200 yards. Carolina couldn't buy a first down - they went 1/8 (12%) on 3rd down. Coach Fox can't be happy about that.
Upset Special
Here's a fun stat: NFLSim predicted 34 carries for Miami for a total 150 yards and 1.7 TD's. Miami had 31 carries for a total 149 yards and 1 TD. They even dominated the play clock. That ground and pound went exactly as it was supposed to but when your QB's throw for 18/31 (58%) for 146 yards and 1 INT, there ain't much you can do. By the way, NFLSim predicted 163 yds and 1.1 INT. River had enough big plays and a ton of yards to give SD the game.
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