Got an early start this week. This week's spreadsheet can be found at...
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
I add games as the week goes by, so keep checking back!
During the course of the week, if the line changes by at least 1 point I'll redo the sim. Anything less than that only changes the % by 1 or 2 pts. I'll let everyone know of the change when it happens. When I info to the post, I'll separate them at the bottom with '---'.
Watch out for the NE NYJ game... NYJ to win at 67%. I simulated twice to be sure. The numbers make sense, but Brady is a wild card.
---
The rest of the stats will be up a little later, Friday at the very latest.
---
Most of the stats are up.
CLE at DEN
Check out the Denver game! I don't think I've ever seen such a mismatch. DEN averaging 26 and CLE averaging 11 points. This is the first 70+% straight up game of the season... it's the first 80+%, too. Their passing games are pretty even. It looks like it really came down to the run game. Oddly enough, they perfectly matched each other in rush yds and carries, but on average, DEN scored 1 more rushing TD than CLE. 1.5 to 0.6. Sounds like red zone efficiency to me. Watch Buckhalter and Moreno destroy Cleveland's 32nd ranked run defense.
---
Alright, everything is up for the week. It looks like NFLSim went a little wild this weekend with its predictions. I'm going to chalk it up to the small amount of stats to work with. Then again, last week's predictions were a bit counter-intuitive and they worked out pretty nicely. Use these picks at your own discretion, don't rely on them for anything too important. Next week we'll be in business fo' sho'.
There's a 2nd 70+% straight up game: MIA over IND, who'da thunk it. In both passing and rushing, Miami was able to score more touchdowns.
Then again, there are some experts at ESPN and other sports news outlets that agree with some of the more eccentric picks...
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
redo IND/MIA with a spread of 3. been 3 most of the week
ReplyDeletetom
I can do that. I generally use Sports Interaction for the lines where it's still at 4.
ReplyDeleteyou're right i see it is 4 there now.
ReplyDelete09/15 06:27 +3 -120 / -3 +100
09/15 11:47 -3 -120 / +3 +100
09/15 20:02 -3 -125 / +3 +105
09/16 06:59 -3½ -110 / +3½ -110
09/17 19:58 -4 -110 / +4 -110
09/19 19:35 -4 -115 / +4 -105
09/20 12:19 -4 -110 / +4 -110
09/20 19:31 -4 -105 / +4 -115
what would the pct be for 3 for us that cant get that line?
thanks
tom
I reran the sim and it said:
ReplyDeleteMIA +3 77.4%
Not much of a change.
i should have looked at the Score and Winner columns more closely. thanks for running it.
ReplyDeletetom
Are you going to be posting anything from your betting optimization algorythm?
ReplyDeleteHave you ever thought about doing an arbitrage between different books and different lines? (like and index arb trader at an investment bank)
Hey Kenny,
ReplyDeleteI'm working on the betting optimization algorithm (BOA) right now. If my picks continue to be accurate according to their probabilities I'll post the results. The only way BOA will work is if a 65% confidence team wins around 65% of the time, etc. If the probabilities aren't accurate, BOA won't be very helpful. The past 2 seasons worked out well, but this is a new season.
I haven't thought about arbitraging lines but you just gave me a cool idea which I'll try to implement this week.