Week 2 Picks

Got an early start this week. This week's spreadsheet can be found at...

Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

I add games as the week goes by, so keep checking back!
During the course of the week, if the line changes by at least 1 point I'll redo the sim. Anything less than that only changes the % by 1 or 2 pts. I'll let everyone know of the change when it happens. When I info to the post, I'll separate them at the bottom with '---'.

 Watch out for the NE NYJ game... NYJ to win at 67%. I simulated twice to be sure. The numbers make sense, but Brady is a wild card.
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The rest of the stats will be up a little later, Friday at the very latest.

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Most of the stats are up.

CLE at DEN
Check out the Denver game! I don't think I've ever seen such a mismatch. DEN averaging 26 and CLE averaging 11 points. This is the first 70+% straight up game of the season... it's the first 80+%, too. Their passing games are pretty even. It looks like it really came down to the run game. Oddly enough, they perfectly matched each other in rush yds and carries, but on average, DEN scored 1 more rushing TD than CLE. 1.5 to 0.6. Sounds like red zone efficiency to me. Watch Buckhalter and Moreno destroy Cleveland's 32nd ranked run defense.

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Alright, everything is up for the week. It looks like NFLSim went a little wild this weekend with its predictions. I'm going to chalk it up to the small amount of stats to work with. Then again, last week's predictions were a bit counter-intuitive and they worked out pretty nicely. Use these picks at your own discretion, don't rely on them for anything too important. Next week we'll be in business fo' sho'.

There's a 2nd 70+% straight up game: MIA over IND, who'da thunk it. In both passing and rushing, Miami was able to score more touchdowns.

Then again, there are some experts at ESPN and other sports news outlets that agree with some of the more eccentric picks...

Week 8: Sim Stats

Week 8	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	7.06	4.96	15.17	92.37
Atlanta Falcons	6.74	4.80	16.17	83.52
Baltimore Ravens	7.03	5.15	14.10	87.59
Buffalo Bills	8.36	5.15	14.93	105.65
Carolina Panthers	8.00	5.37	12.95	102.12
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals	7.00	4.76	17.17	90.33
Cleveland Browns	5.81	4.45	13.43	78.52
Dallas Cowboys	6.05	4.69	16.03	71.09
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions	6.41	4.90	14.23	81.40
Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans	6.99	5.50	11.52	95.98
Indianapolis Colts	6.27	4.37	16.69	76.58
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.33	5.33	13.90	92.84
Kansas City Chiefs	5.83	4.28	13.98	79.56
Miami Dolphins	7.40	5.34	13.38	99.93
Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots	8.07	5.77	14.12	103.31
New Orleans Saints	8.70	6.08	15.39	107.64
New York Giants	6.47	4.81	13.82	89.33
New York Jets	7.92	6.26	14.17	97.06
Oakland Raiders	5.71	4.13	15.12	73.03
Philadelphia Eagles	7.14	5.48	11.15	99.34
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.51	4.91	12.27	98.24
San Diego Chargers	7.21	4.93	13.91	91.26
San Francisco 49ers	8.51	5.57	13.33	102.46
Seattle Seahawks	5.59	4.54	13.88	72.59
St. Louis Rams	7.13	5.13	15.31	90.66
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.25	4.52	12.95	89.82
Tennessee Titans	7.04	5.28	12.31	92.63
Washington Redskins	7.86	5.43	12.84	110.53
Simulated Average	7.05	5.07	14.08	91.26

Passer Rating Explained

One of football's least understood metrics is the Passer Rating. It's an attempt by the statisticians to quantify a quarterback's performance, but how does it work? What does it take into account? Why the hell is the maximum rating 158.3? Given the evolution of the position, is it really a good measure of a quarterback's ability?

The QB's passer rating looks at four elements: completions, yards, interceptions, and touchdowns, all on a per completion basis. It does not include fumbles, sacks, or any type of rushing statistics. The maximum rating is 158.3 as opposed to a more logical 100.

The first element, Completions, "C" uses the formula: C = (COMP/ATT * 100 - 30)/20.
The third element, Interceptions: I = 2.375 - (INT/ATT * 25)
The fourth element, Touchdowns: T = TD/ATT * 20
The second element, Yards: Y = (YDS/ATT - 3)/4

The maximum possible value for each category is 2.375 and the minimum is 0; if COMP/ATT = .8, then C = 2.5. Since the maximum is 2.375, C equals 2.375, not 2.5. If COMP/ATT = .2 then C = -0.5. Since them minimum is 0, C equals 0. If COMP/ATT = .6 then C = 1.33. Finally, plug the values into the formula: (C+I+T+Y)/6 * 100. The result is the passer rating.

Using Tony Romo as an example, from the heartbreaking DAL-ARI game, we see that Romo had 24 completions, 38 attempts, 321 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.

Therefore:
C = (24/38 * 100 - 30)/20
C = 1.66

I = 2.375 - (0/38 *25)
I = 2.375

T = 3/38 * 20
T = 1.58

Y = (321/38 - 3)/4
Y = 1.36

Rating = (1.66+2.375+1.58+1.36)/6 * 100
Romo's Rating = 116.2

That wasn't too tough.

The passer rating was developed by Don Smith and was first used in the 1973 season. Smith was a statistician and executive with the Pro Football Hall of Fame.1 The odd 158.3 limit came about when he decided that the average QB rating should be 66.6. That was pretty close to reality back in '73 when the average passer rating was 64.7, but last year, in '07, the average passer rating was 82.5, an increase of 28% over the decades. The idea behind his calculations was that he wanted a way to compare all QB's to the average QB at the time. Perhaps Smith's rating made sense 35 years ago when the numbers he used to calibrate the formulae were relevent, though obviously circumstances have changed since then. Completion % has gone from 51% to 61%, yards per game from 140 to 214, TD's from 1.0 to 1.4, etc.

That's a basic overview of passer rating. Once you get through the numbers, it starts to make sense. From now on when your buddies complain about that ridiculous stat, impress them with your knowledge of C.I.T.Y (comp, int, td, yds).

For you stats-minded people out there, maybe this gives you some ideas on how to make a modern formula that makes sense. When you do make one, post it for some peer review, it will be interesting to see what everyone can think up. I'm working on a formula of my own now, so stay tuned.


1. www.baseball-statistics.com/Greats/Century/passer-rating.htm