It's 5:00 PM and the scores and picks are going up. Stats will follow later, so don't worry fantasy footballers
Week 4 Picks & Stats
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
Hey, guys. I really like the stats that NFLSim is generating. The season averages of NFLSim's "important stats" (yards, avg's, etc.) are almost on par with the actual NFL stats. I want to expand this site to include more fantasy analysis and advice. I don't simulate individual player statistics, but I can show which teams will do particularly well in passing, rushing, kicking. I've received positive feedback regarding fantasy team management and I want to supersize that. What is the best format to present it?
---
DAL -3 at DEN, 42.5
The DAL-DEN game isn't a typo. DEN actually is an 88% favorite, 92% ATS. NFLSim works in mysterious ways and I'm here to interpret the results, so here goes...
DEN has a great defense; DAL has struggled to keep up.
DEN has yet to allow a single passing TD this season (and has only allowed 1 rushing TD).
DAL allows 20 pts/game.
DEN rarely allows big plays; a disorganized DAL defense has allowed 11 20+ yd and 2 40+ yd passes.
Orton is consistent; Romo is erratic and prone to turnovers, though he can make the big plays.
DEN's run game is very good and very consistent; Felix Jones will "more than likely" not play and Barber is coming off of minor injury.
DAL turns the ball over. DEN has home field advantage.
I used the word 'consistent' a couple times. Consistency is key for DEN to win this game. As long as they don't let the big bad Cowboys throw them off of their rhythm, they can plug a way and convert those possessions into points. For DAL to win, it is absolutely necessary for the D-line to pressure Orton into making some mistakes. Consistency, consistency, consistency. There's a good chance that this'll be a damn boring game until the last 5 minutes. DEN to win 88%, DEN +3 at 92%, OVER 42.5 at 57%. Be careful with this game because NFLSim went a little nuts.
---
FANTASY FOOTBALL!!
The spreadsheet now has a sheet called "Fantasy Projections". I rank all of the teams by their projected fantasy points... The numbers are averages over many games, so they may not represent the actual points scored by those entities. If you're stuck between starting Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, go for Brady this week, it looks like he's going to have a better game than Peyton. But if you have those two to choose from, you're probably in pretty good shape.
Showing posts with label free football picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label free football picks. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Week 3 Picks
Week 3 simulations are underway, the picks can be found here:
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
If you catch me looking at the spreadsheet, feel free to ask a question in that little message box.
***Check out the bottoms of sheets, I'm trying something new and awesome. (Interactive point spread graph!)*** Feedback is welcomed
Monday Night Matchup
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -9, 47.5
After last weekend's homecoming embarrassment, the 'Boys aren't going to be to happy when they see the Panthers on that giant monitor. Look for Dallas to have balanced attack, simulations show about 50-50 pass, run plays. Romo is sure to connect for a few big plays and a couple TDs (avg. 1.3 40+ yard plays, 2 TD). Carolina is allowing 168 rush yds per game and that's not going to change this week as the Cowboys run for 178 yds and 1.7 TDs. Carolina has a slight edge in FGs which could be the difference between a CAR +9 and a DAL -9, or a CAR win or DAL win. Last week, NFLSim showed a big FG discrepancy between Dallas and NY and that's how the game was decided. Dallas has a definite overall advantage, Dallas to win 63%, but a late FG might screw things up, Carolina +9, 59%. Update: the point spread analysis found in the spreadsheet backs up my FG theory - Dallas loses by 3 or fewer points in a whopping 10% of simulations.
---
Upset Special
Miami Dolphins over San Diego Chargers -6, 44
This is the biggest upset this week as Miami is a 6 pt dog. The best phrase to describe this game would be "ground and pound". I've never heard that phrase used in football context, but I'm probably just out of the loop. It's a term used in Mixed Martial Arts to describe the technique of pinning your opponent on the ground and beating the hell out of him. I suppose in the case of the Wildcat offense it'll be "ground and maul"... NFLSim says: 34 carries for 150 yards and 1.7 TDs. The key for Miami is to control the clock and in the simulations they own the ball for nearly the longest of all teams this week (second Baltimore). As long as they can keep Rivers off the field, they'll be in good shape. Miami is extremely vulnerable to the deep ball and Rivers is projected to throw 4 balls over 20 yards, 2 TDs and 260 total yards, ouch. If Miami can hold onto the ball and keep the Chargers' passing game in check, they've got nothing to worry about. Miami blew it last week against the Colts by allowing 2 monster passing TDs of 80 and 48 yards. If San Diego can exploit those gaping holes in the secondary, Miami is going to blow it again. Miami to win a slim 59%, Miami beats the 9 point spread 77%.
7/10 Point teasers Record
I just posted this info in a comment but it's too damn good to leave out of a main post. In the comment below, Anon says of teasers, "I know it's a sucker bet. But dammit, I don't care."
Here's my record if you add 7 and 10 points to the spreads for weeks 1 and 2:
Week 1, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 3-1 (75%)
60-69: 5-1 (71.4%)
70-79: 3-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 13-2 (86.7%)
Week 1, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-0 (100%)
60-69: 6-0 (100%)
70-79: 4-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 16-0 (100%)
(Wow! 16-0)
Week 2, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Week 2, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Those teasers may not be such a sucker bet after all when NFLSim is doing the picking...
Thanks to Anon for bringing up a betting strategy that many may not have considered. If you've got a strategy of your own that's been working, go ahead and share the love.
---
I added a "Fair Moneyline Odds" column to the predictions sheet of the spreadsheet. If your sports book is offering a payout equal to or greater than the Fair Moneyline Odds for the team shown, it is a good bet. If the payout is less than the Fair Moneyline Odds, the best bet is for the opposing team to win (even if NFLSim picks them to lose). By using the FMO, you're not betting on the team that you think is going to win, you are exploiting an inefficiency in the line.
Week 3 Picks & Stats
Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats
If you catch me looking at the spreadsheet, feel free to ask a question in that little message box.
***Check out the bottoms of sheets, I'm trying something new and awesome. (Interactive point spread graph!)*** Feedback is welcomed
Monday Night Matchup
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -9, 47.5
After last weekend's homecoming embarrassment, the 'Boys aren't going to be to happy when they see the Panthers on that giant monitor. Look for Dallas to have balanced attack, simulations show about 50-50 pass, run plays. Romo is sure to connect for a few big plays and a couple TDs (avg. 1.3 40+ yard plays, 2 TD). Carolina is allowing 168 rush yds per game and that's not going to change this week as the Cowboys run for 178 yds and 1.7 TDs. Carolina has a slight edge in FGs which could be the difference between a CAR +9 and a DAL -9, or a CAR win or DAL win. Last week, NFLSim showed a big FG discrepancy between Dallas and NY and that's how the game was decided. Dallas has a definite overall advantage, Dallas to win 63%, but a late FG might screw things up, Carolina +9, 59%. Update: the point spread analysis found in the spreadsheet backs up my FG theory - Dallas loses by 3 or fewer points in a whopping 10% of simulations.
---
Upset Special
Miami Dolphins over San Diego Chargers -6, 44
This is the biggest upset this week as Miami is a 6 pt dog. The best phrase to describe this game would be "ground and pound". I've never heard that phrase used in football context, but I'm probably just out of the loop. It's a term used in Mixed Martial Arts to describe the technique of pinning your opponent on the ground and beating the hell out of him. I suppose in the case of the Wildcat offense it'll be "ground and maul"... NFLSim says: 34 carries for 150 yards and 1.7 TDs. The key for Miami is to control the clock and in the simulations they own the ball for nearly the longest of all teams this week (second Baltimore). As long as they can keep Rivers off the field, they'll be in good shape. Miami is extremely vulnerable to the deep ball and Rivers is projected to throw 4 balls over 20 yards, 2 TDs and 260 total yards, ouch. If Miami can hold onto the ball and keep the Chargers' passing game in check, they've got nothing to worry about. Miami blew it last week against the Colts by allowing 2 monster passing TDs of 80 and 48 yards. If San Diego can exploit those gaping holes in the secondary, Miami is going to blow it again. Miami to win a slim 59%, Miami beats the 9 point spread 77%.
7/10 Point teasers Record
I just posted this info in a comment but it's too damn good to leave out of a main post. In the comment below, Anon says of teasers, "I know it's a sucker bet. But dammit, I don't care."
Here's my record if you add 7 and 10 points to the spreads for weeks 1 and 2:
50-59%: 3-1 (75%)
60-69: 5-1 (71.4%)
70-79: 3-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 13-2 (86.7%)
Week 1, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-0 (100%)
60-69: 6-0 (100%)
70-79: 4-0 (100%)
80-89: 2-0 (100%)
Overall: 16-0 (100%)
(Wow! 16-0)
Week 2, 7 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Week 2, 10 pt teaser
50-59%: 4-2 (66.7%)
60-69: 4-0 (100%)
70-79: 5-0 (100%)
80-89: 1-0 (100%)
Overall: 14-2 (87.5%)
Those teasers may not be such a sucker bet after all when NFLSim is doing the picking...
Thanks to Anon for bringing up a betting strategy that many may not have considered. If you've got a strategy of your own that's been working, go ahead and share the love.
---
I added a "Fair Moneyline Odds" column to the predictions sheet of the spreadsheet. If your sports book is offering a payout equal to or greater than the Fair Moneyline Odds for the team shown, it is a good bet. If the payout is less than the Fair Moneyline Odds, the best bet is for the opposing team to win (even if NFLSim picks them to lose). By using the FMO, you're not betting on the team that you think is going to win, you are exploiting an inefficiency in the line.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Week 2 Results
NFLSim had another great week- even greater because it was only the second week of the season. Straight up picks went 9-7 (56.3%) overall. On the surface that's pretty disappointing, but check out how those wins are distributed within the confidence intervals. 50% confidence picks went 5-4 (55.6%) and 60% confidence picks went 3-2 (60%). Missed the 70% game (MIA over IND), that goes down as the most disappointing game of the week :(. The 80% game, DEN over CLE went pretty well.
The picks against the spread had another amazing week. Mia +4 was a tie so I left it out. Overall ATS went 10-5 (66.7%). 50% confidence games went 3-3 (50%), 60% confidence games went 3-1 (75%), 70% confidence games went 4-1 (80%). Come on. You can't argue with that.
That being said, O/U picks were a total debacle at 5-10 (33.3%). NFLSim was 50-50 on the PHI-NO O/U.
More analysis under the numbers...
Best game of the week: HOU +7 to win straight up against TEN at 54%... there's a moneymaker.
Runner up: NYJ +4 to win straight up against NE at 67%... take THAT Brady.
Game I cried after: IND at MIA... I wanted it as much for Miami as I wanted it for me.
The game that no one saw coming: CIN beat GB... huh?
Worst pick of the week: JAX -3.5 ...
Last week's 'CLE at DEN' analysis predicted a fairly even match up with the expectation that DEN would take control on the ground and in the red zone. Buckhalter and Moreno took 76 and 75 yards a piece, with a TD for Buckhalter. Denver went 2-4 in the red zone w/ 2 TDs, Cleveland went 0-1. Denver dominated the air for most of the game.
Stay tuned for more predictions, more analyses, and more surprises next week!
The picks against the spread had another amazing week. Mia +4 was a tie so I left it out. Overall ATS went 10-5 (66.7%). 50% confidence games went 3-3 (50%), 60% confidence games went 3-1 (75%), 70% confidence games went 4-1 (80%). Come on. You can't argue with that.
That being said, O/U picks were a total debacle at 5-10 (33.3%). NFLSim was 50-50 on the PHI-NO O/U.
More analysis under the numbers...
| STRAIGHT UP | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 9 | 5 | 55.56% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3 | 60.00% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | 100.00% |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 16 | 9 | 56.25% |
| ATS | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 6 | 3 | 50.00% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3 | 75.00% |
| 70-79 | 5 | 4 | 80.00% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 15 | 10 | 66.67% |
| O/U | |||
| CONFIDENCE | GAMES | CORRECT | % CORRECT |
| 50-59 | 9 | 4 | 44.44% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 1 | 20.00% |
| 70-79 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- |
| TOTAL | 15 | 5 | 33.33% |
Best game of the week: HOU +7 to win straight up against TEN at 54%... there's a moneymaker.
Runner up: NYJ +4 to win straight up against NE at 67%... take THAT Brady.
Game I cried after: IND at MIA... I wanted it as much for Miami as I wanted it for me.
The game that no one saw coming: CIN beat GB... huh?
Worst pick of the week: JAX -3.5 ...
Last week's 'CLE at DEN' analysis predicted a fairly even match up with the expectation that DEN would take control on the ground and in the red zone. Buckhalter and Moreno took 76 and 75 yards a piece, with a TD for Buckhalter. Denver went 2-4 in the red zone w/ 2 TDs, Cleveland went 0-1. Denver dominated the air for most of the game.
Stay tuned for more predictions, more analyses, and more surprises next week!
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Week 1 Picks
Ok, I couldn't resist. Here some week 1 picks. These are based on preseason data, they are for fun only. I don't recommend using these for monetary purposes
This spreadsheet holds all of the picks and stats in nice, easy-to-read tables. If it doesn't work or if a different format makes more sense, let me know. Keep checking back because this sheet will be updated throughout the week. If you don't see a game up on Wednesday, check it again on Friday.
(The picks are highlighted, everything else is for your fantasy team)
Week 1 Stats & Picks
Again, this is based on preseason data which is not a good indicator of the regular season.
This spreadsheet holds all of the picks and stats in nice, easy-to-read tables. If it doesn't work or if a different format makes more sense, let me know. Keep checking back because this sheet will be updated throughout the week. If you don't see a game up on Wednesday, check it again on Friday.
(The picks are highlighted, everything else is for your fantasy team)
Week 1 Stats & Picks
Again, this is based on preseason data which is not a good indicator of the regular season.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
