2007 Picks and Bets

Before I start listing everything, I'll post this website: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/features/talent. Granted they're NFL experts, but what do they know anyways? The column you should check out is Accuscore, the industrially-sized handicapping website (also the only other play-by-play simulator). They finished the season 163-89, or 64.7%. But wait- what really matters is the spread, right? Well, sort of, but we'll get into that later. Accuscore claims an (un)impressive 54.7% spread prediction on the season, with spread and over/under combining for 60%. But isn't break-even about 53%? Hmm...

By the way, from weeks 12 through 16 (for week 17, it's not worth the work if most teams don't even show up), I was 67.5%. Accuscore was 63.7%.

Get ready for lots of numbers, as there are many weeks to catch up on:

Winning predictions in green, losers in red, ties in black.

Week 12	Win %
GB	52%
DET
NYJ
DAL	72%
IND	72%
ATL
TEN	58%
CIN
HOU	53%
CLE
OAK
KC	60%
SEA	60%
STL
MIN	56%
NYG
WAS
TB	75%
NO	58%
CAR
BUF
JAX	57%
SF	52%
ARI
DEN	70%
CHI
BAL
SD	65%
PHI
NE	78%
MIA
PIT	81%

The table: If % Range is between 60-69, it includes the 3 teams where the win probability fell in that range, i.e. SD, SEA, and KC. Of those 3 teams, 2 of them won. Therefore the win % for teams in the 60-69% range is 66.7%.

Total	% Range	Games	Wins	Win %
	50-59	7	5	71.4%
	60-69	3	2	66.7%
	70-79	5	4	80.0%
	80-89	1	1	100.0%
	90-100	0	0	0.0%
	Total	16	12	75.0%