Week 2 Picks, Stats & Fantasy

OK, here we go, NFL Sim Capper's first week of the season...

I got the spreads at the beginning of the week so they may be off by a point. Next week's sheet will include individual game matchups along with in-depth spread analysis

All simulations improve as more data becomes available.  One week of stats isn't a lot of data to go off of so the first couple weeks of picks might be erratic. That being said, historically NFLSim tends to do well before the odds makers figure out which teams they like, particularly when picking underdogs straight up.

Contents of the spreadsheet:
"Picks": A summary of this week's games. Matchups with odds are posted on the far left; the column 'Score' contains the average scores from simulations. 'Winner' lists the predicted winner of the game and the % of simulations that the team won. 'Spread' is the winner against the spread and the % of simulation that the team beat the spread. 'Total' is the over/under prediction with the % of simulations that maintained that outcome. 'Fair Moneyline Odds' is the minimum payout that is required to make a straight up bet on the predicted favorite profitable given the % calculated by NFLSim. 'Results' is updated at the end of the week; it shows the number of teams in each prediction confidence interval (50-59%, 60-69%,...).

"Sim Stats": A collection of stats from this week's simulations.

"Fantasy Projections": Fantasy scores based on the simulated stats. There are only team stats, no individual stats. So if you see NE with 19.1 Passing points it may be a good idea to start Tom Brady over a QB whose team has fewer points. Whereas if you have Randy Moss and Chad Ochocinco (you lucky bastard), and you could only chose one, and NE has 19.1 pts and CIN has 12.5 pts, Randy Moss is a better play. Likewise for Rushing and Kicking.

"Matchup": Normally every game will have its own page dedicated to the matchup's scores, stats, and spread analysis.

As always, email me at simcapper@gmail.com with all of your questions.

Week 2 Pick, Stats & Fantasy