Thursday, December 3, 2009

Week 13 Picks

Week 13 Picks, Stats & Fantasy
Posted by The Sim Capper at 10:10 AM

6 comments:

  1. AnonymousDecember 4, 2009 at 2:19 PM

    Am I missing something? I dont see Den/KC up there as a game you plan to simulate, or have you just not written up the info on it yet?

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  2. The Sim CapperDecember 4, 2009 at 2:51 PM

    I'm missing something... d'oh.
    It'll be up later today.

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  3. AnonymousDecember 4, 2009 at 6:30 PM

    NE over MIA? Interesting

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  4. The Sim CapperDecember 4, 2009 at 8:50 PM

    MIA over NE? It's only 55%, so it could go either way. But remember, they're playing in MIA. If they played in NE this would probably go the other way.

    There's no competition between NE and MIA passing. There's also arguably no competition between NE and MIA rushing.

    NFLSim has a passing TD differential of +0.8 in favor of NE and rushing TD differential of +0.8 in favor of MIA.

    In this matchup, statistically, it comes down to a field goal. Carpenter(MIA) is 16/17 (94.1%); Gostowski(NE) is 21/26 (80.8%). It doesn't seem like much, but after hundreds of simulations, little things like this emerge.

    Either way, it'll be close. NFLSim is about 60% correct when picking the winner of 50-59% games this season.

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  5. "Timber"December 7, 2009 at 10:02 AM

    Wow, Great week this week ATS!!! Keep it up!

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  6. The Sim CapperDecember 7, 2009 at 1:40 PM

    No kidding! The past three weeks have been insane.

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