NFL Sim Capper: Week 14 Picks

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Week 14 Picks

5 comments:

alouShiDecember 11, 2009 at 2:40 PM
Hi, Great record !!! Never seen anyone that good. What is meant by the Fair Moneyline Odds Column and how do the numbers work?

Thanks,
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AnonymousDecember 11, 2009 at 2:45 PM
Great job keep it up, lets murder week 14 ! what do you mean by fair moneyline and do you expect any suprises in week 14 ? thank you.
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The Sim CapperDecember 11, 2009 at 4:08 PM
Aaaaah I don't want to jinx it.

It follows from the assumption that NFLSim predicts the correct straight up win %'s. The number listed for the team is the break-even odds, given whatever the straight up win % is. If you find a moneyline payout that is higher than the listed number, bet on the listed team. If that moneyline is less than the number, bet on the opposing team.

It has worked very well the past 2 seasons but I haven't paid attention to it this season.

If NFLSim is too accurate, it won't work. If NFLSim is not accurate enough, it won't work. Keep that in mind if you choose to use it. (I don't use it)

I was surprised by PIT/CLE... wtf, pittsburgh sucks. That's two weeks in a row they burnt me as a +70% su pick. Actually, the PIT moneyline was probably too low (lower than 1.37 I'm guessing) if they even gave a 14.5 pt favorite a moneyline. That woulda been a pretty sweet fair moneyline bet.
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alouShiDecember 11, 2009 at 4:24 PM
What game in your opinion is the safest bet this week?
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The Sim CapperDecember 11, 2009 at 4:35 PM
Hmmm... safest bet? In terms of %? % with respect to payout? That's a dangerous question to answer.

But I'd say SU: NYJ (75%); ATS: NYJ -3 (73%) and CAR +13.5 (68%); O/U: can't see SD/DAL going over 48.5 (under 63%)
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Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Week 14 Picks

5 comments:

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