No picks for week 17. Check back for playoff predictions.
Happy holidays!
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Week 16: Predictions
Son of a bitch, kind of lost track of time. The DAL game will be up tonight, check back later.
Until then, head over to nbablackbox.blogspot.com, lots of games tonight.
BAL at DAL -5, 39
BAL: 20.54
DAL: 19.65
Winner: BAL, 51%
Spread: BAL +5, 66%
O/U: OVER, 51%
ARI at NE -7.5, 43.5
ARI: 22.07
NE: 23.66
Winner: NE, 55%
Spread: ARI +7.5, 71%
O/U: OVER, 55%
CIN at CLE -3, 32.5
CIN: 18.10
CLE: 22.22
Winner: CLE, 54%
Spread: CIN +3, 53%
O/U: OVER, 69%
MIA -4 at KC, 38
MIA: 26.05
KC: 20.01
Winner: MIA, 66%
Spread: MIA -4, 52%
O/U: OVER, 69%
NO -7 at DET, 50.5
NO: 26.51
DET: 19.54
Winner: NO, 69%
Spread: DET +7, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 63%
PIT -2.5 at TEN, 34.5
PIT: 17.12
TEN: 21.17
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: TEN +2.5, 66%
O/U: OVER, 58%
SD at TB -3.5, 42.5
SD: 19.76
TB: 22.82
Winner: TB, 55%
Spread: SD +3.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
SF -5.5 at STL, 42.5
SF: 20.58
STL: 21.43
Winner: SF, 51%
Spread: STL +5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
BUF at DEN -6, 45
BUF: 22.95
DEN: 25.16
Winner: DEN, 56%
Spread: BUF +6, 62%
O/U: OVER, 57%
HOU -7 at OAK, 43.5
HOU: 24.61
OAK: 21.45
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: OAK +7, 61%
O/U: OVER, 55%
NYJ -3.5 at SEA, 41.5
NYJ: 24.57
SEA: 21.97
Winner: NYJ, 59%
Spread: NYJ -3.5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 62%
ATL at MIN -3, 43
ATL: 18.99
MIN: 26.17
Winner: MIN, 73%
Spread: MIN -3, 61%
O/U: OVER, 53%
PHI -5.5 at WAS, 37
PHI: 19.06
WAS: 20.88
Winner: WAS, 51%
Spread: WAS +5.5, 71%
O/U: OVER, 57%
CAR at NYG -3.5, 36.5
CAR: 20.49
NYG: 22.10
Winner: NYG, 55%
Spread: CAR +3.5, 55%
O/U: OVER, 69%
GB at CHI -4, 40.5
GB: 18.61
CHI: 23.44
Winner: CHI, 64%
Spread: GB +4, 51%
O/U: OVER, 57%
Until then, head over to nbablackbox.blogspot.com, lots of games tonight.
BAL at DAL -5, 39
BAL: 20.54
DAL: 19.65
Winner: BAL, 51%
Spread: BAL +5, 66%
O/U: OVER, 51%
ARI at NE -7.5, 43.5
ARI: 22.07
NE: 23.66
Winner: NE, 55%
Spread: ARI +7.5, 71%
O/U: OVER, 55%
CIN at CLE -3, 32.5
CIN: 18.10
CLE: 22.22
Winner: CLE, 54%
Spread: CIN +3, 53%
O/U: OVER, 69%
MIA -4 at KC, 38
MIA: 26.05
KC: 20.01
Winner: MIA, 66%
Spread: MIA -4, 52%
O/U: OVER, 69%
NO -7 at DET, 50.5
NO: 26.51
DET: 19.54
Winner: NO, 69%
Spread: DET +7, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 63%
PIT -2.5 at TEN, 34.5
PIT: 17.12
TEN: 21.17
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: TEN +2.5, 66%
O/U: OVER, 58%
SD at TB -3.5, 42.5
SD: 19.76
TB: 22.82
Winner: TB, 55%
Spread: SD +3.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
SF -5.5 at STL, 42.5
SF: 20.58
STL: 21.43
Winner: SF, 51%
Spread: STL +5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
BUF at DEN -6, 45
BUF: 22.95
DEN: 25.16
Winner: DEN, 56%
Spread: BUF +6, 62%
O/U: OVER, 57%
HOU -7 at OAK, 43.5
HOU: 24.61
OAK: 21.45
Winner: HOU, 63%
Spread: OAK +7, 61%
O/U: OVER, 55%
NYJ -3.5 at SEA, 41.5
NYJ: 24.57
SEA: 21.97
Winner: NYJ, 59%
Spread: NYJ -3.5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 62%
ATL at MIN -3, 43
ATL: 18.99
MIN: 26.17
Winner: MIN, 73%
Spread: MIN -3, 61%
O/U: OVER, 53%
PHI -5.5 at WAS, 37
PHI: 19.06
WAS: 20.88
Winner: WAS, 51%
Spread: WAS +5.5, 71%
O/U: OVER, 57%
CAR at NYG -3.5, 36.5
CAR: 20.49
NYG: 22.10
Winner: NYG, 55%
Spread: CAR +3.5, 55%
O/U: OVER, 69%
GB at CHI -4, 40.5
GB: 18.61
CHI: 23.44
Winner: CHI, 64%
Spread: GB +4, 51%
O/U: OVER, 57%
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Week 15: Start 'em, Sit 'em
To celebrate the end of finals, here's some fantasy advice.
QB:
Start 'em
1. Payton Manning, IND
2. Donovan McNabb, PHI
3. Kurt Warner, ARI
4. Philip Rivers, SD
5. Chad Pennington, MIA
Sit 'em
1. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
2. Derek Anderson, CLE
3. Carson Palmer, CIN
4. Joe Flacco, BAL
5. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA
RB:
Start 'em
1. Michael Turner, ATL
2. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
3. Chris Johnson, TEN
4. Clinton Portis, WAS
5. Thomas Jones, NYJ
Sit 'em
1. Frank Gore, SF
2. Edgerrin James, ARI
3. Kevin Smith, DET
4. Pierre Thomas, NO
5. Jamal Lewis, CLE
Defense:
Start 'em
1. MIA
2. PHI
3. WAS
4. IND
5. ATL
Sit 'em
1. DET
2. CLE
3. DEN
4. SF
5. BUF
QB:
Start 'em
1. Payton Manning, IND
2. Donovan McNabb, PHI
3. Kurt Warner, ARI
4. Philip Rivers, SD
5. Chad Pennington, MIA
Sit 'em
1. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
2. Derek Anderson, CLE
3. Carson Palmer, CIN
4. Joe Flacco, BAL
5. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA
RB:
Start 'em
1. Michael Turner, ATL
2. DeAngelo Williams, CAR
3. Chris Johnson, TEN
4. Clinton Portis, WAS
5. Thomas Jones, NYJ
Sit 'em
1. Frank Gore, SF
2. Edgerrin James, ARI
3. Kevin Smith, DET
4. Pierre Thomas, NO
5. Jamal Lewis, CLE
Defense:
Start 'em
1. MIA
2. PHI
3. WAS
4. IND
5. ATL
Sit 'em
1. DET
2. CLE
3. DEN
4. SF
5. BUF
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Week 15: Predictions
Hey everyone, be sure to check out NBA Black Box. NFL Black Box is great and all, but NBA BB is really knocking it out of the park. Over the past 7 days, it's 16-3 ATS (84.2%). On the season, the best picks, the 5-Star picks are 83-43 (65.9%). There are power rankings, too. It's totally free just like NFL BB, so take advantage of it.
May want to be careful with the spread, it's been over-estimating the probability of the underdog covering. In other words, teams that win aren't winning by enough. Which is very strange because the win % is virtually identical to reality (I'll go over that when I post the season's results) and O/U is not far behind. Just to give you an idea, without all of the details, based on confidence % and the number of games in each interval, the expected number straight up wins (oversimplified as the number of wins I should have, if prediction approximates reality), is 110, NFLSim hit 116, so that's pretty close. O/U expected wins is 100, actual is 94, again it's pretty close. Expected ATS wins is 105, though only 80 hit.
What's going on? NFLSim is perfect at assigning probabilities to straight up wins, very good at assigning probabilities to point totals, but the spread has been getting lost somewhere along the way. The right teams are winning, but the winner should be scoring more and the loser less.
Moral of the story: if your system's spread agrees with NFLSim's spread, go for it. Totals seem reliable. For straight up bets, if Vegas's payout is greater than the value of 100/win%, i.e. 100/53 = 1.89 vs. Vegas payout of 1.79, bet on that team to win, whether it's the predicted to win or lose (since win % are so accurate, mathematically, you will make money in the long run).
NO at CHI -3, 45
NO: 20.42
CHI: 23.24
Winner: CHI, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
BUF at NYJ -7, 41
BUF: 20.22
NYJ: 25.19
Winner: NYJ, 61%
Spread: BUF +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%
DET at IND -17, 45
DET: 17.39
IND: 26.70
Winner: IND, 76%
Spread: DET +17, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
GB -2 at JAX, 45
GB: 23.53
JAX: 21.97
Winner: GB, 56%
Spread: JAX +2, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
SF at MIA -6.5, 41.5
SF: 17.04
MIA: 25.29
Winner: MIA, 73%
Spread: MIA -6.5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 51%
TEN -3.5 at HOU , 44.5
TEN: 22.37
HOU: 23.39
Winner: HOU, 52%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 62%
O/U: OVER, 52%
SD -6 at KC, 45.5
SD: 24.06
KC: 22.32
Winner: SD, 56%
Spread: KC +6, 63%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
TB at ATL -3, 44.5
TB: 19.81
ATL: 22.83
Winner: ATL, 59%
Spread: TB +3, 53%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
DEN at CAR -7.5, 48
DEN: 20.53
CAR: 24.29
Winner: CAR, 59%
Spread: DEN +7.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 63%
NE -7 at OAK, 40
NE: 23.34
OAK: 20.83
Winner: NE, 57%
Spread: OAK +7, 68%
O/U: OVER, 62%
WAS -7 at CIN, 36.5
WAS: 22.70
CIN: 17.12
Winner: WAS, 64%
Spread: CIN +7, 64%
O/U: OVER, 59%
PIT at BAL -2, 34.5
PIT: 15.31
BAL: 22.02
Winner: BAL, 68%
Spread: BAL -2, 65%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NYG at DAL -3, 45
NYG: 20.59
DAL: 20.17
Winner: NYG, 52%
Spread: NYG +3, 63%
O/U: UNDER, 65%
MIN at ARI -3, 47
MIN: 20.13
ARI: 22.68
Winner: ARI, 58%
Spread: MIN +3, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 66%
SEA -2.5 at STL, 43
SEA: 21.90
STL: 22.52
Winner: STL, 51%
Spread: STL +2.5, 55%
O/U: OVER, 55%
CLE at PHI -14, 39
CLE: 15.61
PHI: 26.12
Winner: PHI, 80%
Spread: CLE +14, 62%
O/U: OVER, 56%
May want to be careful with the spread, it's been over-estimating the probability of the underdog covering. In other words, teams that win aren't winning by enough. Which is very strange because the win % is virtually identical to reality (I'll go over that when I post the season's results) and O/U is not far behind. Just to give you an idea, without all of the details, based on confidence % and the number of games in each interval, the expected number straight up wins (oversimplified as the number of wins I should have, if prediction approximates reality), is 110, NFLSim hit 116, so that's pretty close. O/U expected wins is 100, actual is 94, again it's pretty close. Expected ATS wins is 105, though only 80 hit.
What's going on? NFLSim is perfect at assigning probabilities to straight up wins, very good at assigning probabilities to point totals, but the spread has been getting lost somewhere along the way. The right teams are winning, but the winner should be scoring more and the loser less.
Moral of the story: if your system's spread agrees with NFLSim's spread, go for it. Totals seem reliable. For straight up bets, if Vegas's payout is greater than the value of 100/win%, i.e. 100/53 = 1.89 vs. Vegas payout of 1.79, bet on that team to win, whether it's the predicted to win or lose (since win % are so accurate, mathematically, you will make money in the long run).
NO at CHI -3, 45
NO: 20.42
CHI: 23.24
Winner: CHI, 53%
Spread: NO +3, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
BUF at NYJ -7, 41
BUF: 20.22
NYJ: 25.19
Winner: NYJ, 61%
Spread: BUF +7, 59%
O/U: OVER, 58%
DET at IND -17, 45
DET: 17.39
IND: 26.70
Winner: IND, 76%
Spread: DET +17, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
GB -2 at JAX, 45
GB: 23.53
JAX: 21.97
Winner: GB, 56%
Spread: JAX +2, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
SF at MIA -6.5, 41.5
SF: 17.04
MIA: 25.29
Winner: MIA, 73%
Spread: MIA -6.5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 51%
TEN -3.5 at HOU , 44.5
TEN: 22.37
HOU: 23.39
Winner: HOU, 52%
Spread: HOU +3.5, 62%
O/U: OVER, 52%
SD -6 at KC, 45.5
SD: 24.06
KC: 22.32
Winner: SD, 56%
Spread: KC +6, 63%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
TB at ATL -3, 44.5
TB: 19.81
ATL: 22.83
Winner: ATL, 59%
Spread: TB +3, 53%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
DEN at CAR -7.5, 48
DEN: 20.53
CAR: 24.29
Winner: CAR, 59%
Spread: DEN +7.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 63%
NE -7 at OAK, 40
NE: 23.34
OAK: 20.83
Winner: NE, 57%
Spread: OAK +7, 68%
O/U: OVER, 62%
WAS -7 at CIN, 36.5
WAS: 22.70
CIN: 17.12
Winner: WAS, 64%
Spread: CIN +7, 64%
O/U: OVER, 59%
PIT at BAL -2, 34.5
PIT: 15.31
BAL: 22.02
Winner: BAL, 68%
Spread: BAL -2, 65%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NYG at DAL -3, 45
NYG: 20.59
DAL: 20.17
Winner: NYG, 52%
Spread: NYG +3, 63%
O/U: UNDER, 65%
MIN at ARI -3, 47
MIN: 20.13
ARI: 22.68
Winner: ARI, 58%
Spread: MIN +3, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 66%
SEA -2.5 at STL, 43
SEA: 21.90
STL: 22.52
Winner: STL, 51%
Spread: STL +2.5, 55%
O/U: OVER, 55%
CLE at PHI -14, 39
CLE: 15.61
PHI: 26.12
Winner: PHI, 80%
Spread: CLE +14, 62%
O/U: OVER, 56%
| Straight | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 6 | 10 | 60.0% | |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3 | 33.3% | |
| 70-79 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 1 | 1 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 10 | 16 | 62.5% | |
| Spread | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 8 | 14 | 57.1% | |
| Total | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 5 | 11 | 45.5% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Week 14: Predictions
First Thanksgiving, now finals. The good news is yesterday was the last class day of the semester. The bad news is finals have begun. I'll try to post as much as possible, but unfortunately school comes before handicapping... or so I'm led to believe...
OAK at SD -9.5, 41.5
OAK: 18.44
SD: 22.79
Winner: SD, 64%
Spread: OAK +9.5, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
ATL at NO -3, 51
ATL: 21.61
NO: 24.89
Winner: NO, 62%
Spread: NO -3, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 65%
CIN at IND -13.5, 42
CIN: 17.74
IND: 24.17
Winner: IND, 69%
Spread: CIN +13.5, 71%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
CLE at TEN -14, 37.5
CLE: 15.64
TEN: 22.50
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: CLE +14, 75%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
HOU at GB -6, 47
HOU: 25.20
GB: 23.44
Winner: HOU, 55%
Spread: HOU +6, 70%
O/U: OVER, 54%
JAX at CHI -6.5, 40
JAX: 17.68
CHI: 22.77
Winner: CHI, 64%
Spread: JAX +6.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
PHI at NYG -7, 43.5
PHI: 20.46
NYG: 22.23
Winner: NYG, 56%
Spread: PHI +7, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
KC at DEN -9, 49
KC: 21.85
DEN: 26.00
Winner: DEN, 65%
Spread: KC +9, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
DAL at PIT -3, 40
DAL: 17.88
PIT: 22.37
Winner: PIT, 64%
Spread: PIT -3, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
MIA at BUF, 42
MIA: 23.18
BUF: 21.74
Winner: MIA, 53%
Spread: MIA, 53%
O/U: OVER, 56%
NYJ -4 at SF, 44.5
NYJ: 23.36
SF: 21.11
Winner: NYJ, 56%
Spread: SF +4, 57%
O/U: OVER, 51%
NE -4.5 at SEA, 43
NE: 25.50
SEA: 22.72
Winner: NE, 58%
Spread: SEA +4.5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 62%
STL at ARI -14, 48.5
STL: 18.45
ARI: 26.02
Winner: ARI, 73%
Spread: STL +14, 75%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
WAS at BAL -5, 35.5
WAS: 19.83
BAL: 21.00
Winner: BAL, 55%
Spread: WAS +5, 61%
O/U: OVER, 61%
TB at CAR -3, 38
TB: 20.24
CAR: 20.78
Winner: TB, 51%
Spread: TB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 52%
Didn't have a chance to post the MIN game. Too bad, considering I hit the winner, spread, and o/u. But, since I didn't post it, these results don't include it. It would have brought the records to 81.3, 56.3, and 68.8% respectively.
OAK at SD -9.5, 41.5
OAK: 18.44
SD: 22.79
Winner: SD, 64%
Spread: OAK +9.5, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 54%
ATL at NO -3, 51
ATL: 21.61
NO: 24.89
Winner: NO, 62%
Spread: NO -3, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 65%
CIN at IND -13.5, 42
CIN: 17.74
IND: 24.17
Winner: IND, 69%
Spread: CIN +13.5, 71%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
CLE at TEN -14, 37.5
CLE: 15.64
TEN: 22.50
Winner: TEN, 69%
Spread: CLE +14, 75%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
HOU at GB -6, 47
HOU: 25.20
GB: 23.44
Winner: HOU, 55%
Spread: HOU +6, 70%
O/U: OVER, 54%
JAX at CHI -6.5, 40
JAX: 17.68
CHI: 22.77
Winner: CHI, 64%
Spread: JAX +6.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
PHI at NYG -7, 43.5
PHI: 20.46
NYG: 22.23
Winner: NYG, 56%
Spread: PHI +7, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
KC at DEN -9, 49
KC: 21.85
DEN: 26.00
Winner: DEN, 65%
Spread: KC +9, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
DAL at PIT -3, 40
DAL: 17.88
PIT: 22.37
Winner: PIT, 64%
Spread: PIT -3, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
MIA at BUF, 42
MIA: 23.18
BUF: 21.74
Winner: MIA, 53%
Spread: MIA, 53%
O/U: OVER, 56%
NYJ -4 at SF, 44.5
NYJ: 23.36
SF: 21.11
Winner: NYJ, 56%
Spread: SF +4, 57%
O/U: OVER, 51%
NE -4.5 at SEA, 43
NE: 25.50
SEA: 22.72
Winner: NE, 58%
Spread: SEA +4.5, 56%
O/U: OVER, 62%
STL at ARI -14, 48.5
STL: 18.45
ARI: 26.02
Winner: ARI, 73%
Spread: STL +14, 75%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
WAS at BAL -5, 35.5
WAS: 19.83
BAL: 21.00
Winner: BAL, 55%
Spread: WAS +5, 61%
O/U: OVER, 61%
TB at CAR -3, 38
TB: 20.24
CAR: 20.78
Winner: TB, 51%
Spread: TB +3, 60%
O/U: OVER, 52%
Didn't have a chance to post the MIN game. Too bad, considering I hit the winner, spread, and o/u. But, since I didn't post it, these results don't include it. It would have brought the records to 81.3, 56.3, and 68.8% respectively.
| Straight | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 4 | 7 | 57.1% | |
| 60-69 | 7 | 7 | 100.0% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 12 | 15 | 80.0% | |
| Spread | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 5 | 6 | 83.3% | |
| 60-69 | 2 | 5 | 40.0% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 8 | 15 | 53.3% | |
| Total | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 8 | 11 | 72.7% | |
| 60-69 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 10 | 15 | 66.7% |
Friday, November 28, 2008
NBA Black Box
NBA Black Box is officially underway. I've been posting for a couple weeks and things are looking great. Overall, on the season, NBA Black Box is 120-31 (79.5%) picking the winner, 58-31 (65.2%) ATS, and 22-7 (75.9%) when picking the underdog to win (great for moneyline bet). Check it out at nbablackbox.blogspot.com. Picks go up daily, I try to put them up as early as I can. Visit everyday and tell all your buddies. As usual, everything is 100% free.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Thanksgiving Predictions
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Eat a lot, watch a lot of football, and have fun not working. Good luck!
Wow, what a hectic week. Traveling + holiday + family is not conducive to running a time-sensitive operation.
ARI at PHI -3, 46.5
ARI: 21.23
PHI: 24.03
Winner: PHI, 56%
Spread: ARI +3, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
SEA at DAL -13, 47
SEA: 19.00
DAL: 23.36
Winner: DAL, 64%
Spread: SEA +13, 76%
O/U: UNDER, 67%
TEN -11.5 at DET, 44
TEN: 22.78
DET: 17.43
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: DET +11.5, 72%
O/U: UNDER, 64%
SF at BUF -6.5, 43
SF: 20.18
BUF: 24.63
Winner: BUF, 60%
Spread: SF +6.5, 43%
O/U: OVER, 51%
BAL -7 at CIN, 36
BAL: 21.92
CIN: 16.89
Winner: BAL, 61%
Spread: CIN +6, 61%
O/U: OVER, 56%
IND -5 at CLE, 45
IND: 20.99
CLE: 21.90
Winner: CLE, 51%
Spread: CLE +5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 61%
CAR at GB -3, 42
CAR: 22.87
GB: 22.31
Winner: GB, 51%
Spread: CAR +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 57%
MIA -9 at STL, 45
MIA: 27.31
STL: 18.77
Winner: MIA, 74%
Spread: STL +9, 54%
O/U: OVER, 51%
NO at TB -4, 46.5
NO: 21.37
TB: 22.46
Winner: NO, 51%
Spread: NO +4, 62%
O/U: UNDER, 60%
NYG -3.5 at WAS, 41.5
NYG: 19.63
WAS: 22.39
Winner: WAS, 57%
Spread: WAS +3.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
ATL at SD -4, 49
ATL: 22.59
SD: 26.49
Winner: SD, 61%
Spread: ATL +4, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
PIT at NE -1, 40
PIT: 17.76
NE: 22.53
Winner: NE, 62%
Spread: NE -1, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
DEN at NYJ -8, 48
DEN: 20.64
NYJ: 26.89
Winner: NYJ, 68%
Spread: DEN +8, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
KC at OAK -3, 41.5
KC: 20.09
OAK: 25.09
Winner: OAK, 63%
Spread: OAK -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CHI at MIN -3, 41
CHI: 19.48
MIN: 20.54
Winner: MIN, 54%
Spread: CHI +3, 58%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
JAX at HOU-3, 48
JAX: 21.37
HOU: 27.89
Winner: HOU, 67%
Spread: HOU -3, 57%
O/U: OVER, 52%
Wow, what a hectic week. Traveling + holiday + family is not conducive to running a time-sensitive operation.
ARI at PHI -3, 46.5
ARI: 21.23
PHI: 24.03
Winner: PHI, 56%
Spread: ARI +3, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 57%
SEA at DAL -13, 47
SEA: 19.00
DAL: 23.36
Winner: DAL, 64%
Spread: SEA +13, 76%
O/U: UNDER, 67%
TEN -11.5 at DET, 44
TEN: 22.78
DET: 17.43
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: DET +11.5, 72%
O/U: UNDER, 64%
SF at BUF -6.5, 43
SF: 20.18
BUF: 24.63
Winner: BUF, 60%
Spread: SF +6.5, 43%
O/U: OVER, 51%
BAL -7 at CIN, 36
BAL: 21.92
CIN: 16.89
Winner: BAL, 61%
Spread: CIN +6, 61%
O/U: OVER, 56%
IND -5 at CLE, 45
IND: 20.99
CLE: 21.90
Winner: CLE, 51%
Spread: CLE +5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 61%
CAR at GB -3, 42
CAR: 22.87
GB: 22.31
Winner: GB, 51%
Spread: CAR +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 57%
MIA -9 at STL, 45
MIA: 27.31
STL: 18.77
Winner: MIA, 74%
Spread: STL +9, 54%
O/U: OVER, 51%
NO at TB -4, 46.5
NO: 21.37
TB: 22.46
Winner: NO, 51%
Spread: NO +4, 62%
O/U: UNDER, 60%
NYG -3.5 at WAS, 41.5
NYG: 19.63
WAS: 22.39
Winner: WAS, 57%
Spread: WAS +3.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
ATL at SD -4, 49
ATL: 22.59
SD: 26.49
Winner: SD, 61%
Spread: ATL +4, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
PIT at NE -1, 40
PIT: 17.76
NE: 22.53
Winner: NE, 62%
Spread: NE -1, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 51%
DEN at NYJ -8, 48
DEN: 20.64
NYJ: 26.89
Winner: NYJ, 68%
Spread: DEN +8, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
KC at OAK -3, 41.5
KC: 20.09
OAK: 25.09
Winner: OAK, 63%
Spread: OAK -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 56%
CHI at MIN -3, 41
CHI: 19.48
MIN: 20.54
Winner: MIN, 54%
Spread: CHI +3, 58%
O/U: UNDER, 58%
JAX at HOU-3, 48
JAX: 21.37
HOU: 27.89
Winner: HOU, 67%
Spread: HOU -3, 57%
O/U: OVER, 52%
| Straight | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 2 | 6 | 33.3% | |
| 60-69 | 4 | 9 | 44.4% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 7 | 16 | 43.8% | |
| Spread | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 6 | 9 | 66.7% | |
| 60-69 | 2 | 4 | 50.0% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 8 | 16 | 50.0% | |
| Total | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 4 | 12 | 33.3% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 7 | 16 | 43.8% |
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Week 12: Fantasy Stats
Here are the passing, rushing, and defensive stats for all of the teams, along with a few extra stats. Hopefully, this will help with those tough fantasy decisions.
| PASSING | PASS YDS | PASS TD | INT | QB RATING |
| Arizona Cardinals | 235.2 | 1.86 | 0.95 | 97.3 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 170.2 | 1.46 | 0.65 | 90.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 170.4 | 1.26 | 0.67 | 87.7 |
| Buffalo Bills | 221.6 | 1.70 | 1.06 | 94.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 174.7 | 1.39 | 0.81 | 83.7 |
| Chicago Bears | 211.5 | 1.67 | 0.60 | 93.6 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 165.0 | 1.20 | 0.91 | 79.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 213.5 | 1.85 | 0.66 | 91.9 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 197.8 | 1.55 | 0.88 | 89.9 |
| Denver Broncos | 215.9 | 1.62 | 1.12 | 88.0 |
| Detroit Lions | 196.9 | 1.48 | 1.10 | 80.9 |
| Green Bay Packers | 218.1 | 1.81 | 0.66 | 93.5 |
| Houston Texans | 236.5 | 2.01 | 1.31 | 92.7 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 241.3 | 1.72 | 0.68 | 93.8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 190.4 | 1.49 | 0.51 | 97.1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 194.1 | 1.64 | 0.55 | 90.6 |
| Miami Dolphins | 221.0 | 1.99 | 0.70 | 103.1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 178.6 | 1.46 | 0.90 | 86.2 |
| New England Patriots | 206.6 | 1.62 | 0.61 | 94.4 |
| New Orleans Saints | 220.6 | 2.01 | 1.04 | 90.5 |
| New York Giants | 192.3 | 1.53 | 0.80 | 89.5 |
| New York Jets | 195.1 | 1.42 | 1.22 | 82.9 |
| Oakland Raiders | 176.5 | 1.36 | 0.48 | 89.1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 223.3 | 1.81 | 1.18 | 81.2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 172.7 | 1.47 | 0.75 | 92.3 |
| San Diego Chargers | 225.0 | 1.85 | 0.95 | 100.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 178.4 | 1.49 | 0.74 | 88.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 154.3 | 1.17 | 0.79 | 76.5 |
| St. Louis Rams | 181.9 | 1.59 | 0.88 | 87.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 227.5 | 1.98 | 0.49 | 102.9 |
| Tennessee Titans | 181.9 | 1.50 | 0.65 | 92.0 |
| Washington Redskins | 213.9 | 1.65 | 0.35 | 102.5 |
| RUSHING | RUSH YDS | RUSH TD | FUM |
| Arizona Cardinals | 71.7 | 0.85 | 0.17 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 152.8 | 1.37 | 0.34 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 142.0 | 1.30 | 0.53 |
| Buffalo Bills | 127.7 | 1.25 | 0.59 |
| Carolina Panthers | 129.1 | 1.00 | 0.19 |
| Chicago Bears | 112.9 | 0.95 | 0.30 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 62.5 | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| Cleveland Browns | 113.9 | 0.90 | 0.37 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 101.6 | 0.85 | 0.44 |
| Denver Broncos | 101.4 | 1.07 | 0.44 |
| Detroit Lions | 81.9 | 0.73 | 0.44 |
| Green Bay Packers | 96.0 | 0.96 | 0.49 |
| Houston Texans | 120.3 | 1.26 | 0.44 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 61.1 | 0.63 | 0.09 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 103.2 | 0.98 | 0.54 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 99.5 | 1.12 | 0.36 |
| Miami Dolphins | 115.7 | 1.21 | 0.35 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 132.1 | 1.20 | 0.47 |
| New England Patriots | 100.2 | 0.84 | 0.34 |
| New Orleans Saints | 90.7 | 1.15 | 0.44 |
| New York Giants | 134.1 | 1.10 | 0.64 |
| New York Jets | 104.4 | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| Oakland Raiders | 146.0 | 1.24 | 0.59 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 73.9 | 0.65 | 0.19 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 118.3 | 1.25 | 0.36 |
| San Diego Chargers | 110.3 | 1.15 | 0.23 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 97.9 | 0.86 | 0.70 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 115.1 | 1.04 | 0.38 |
| St. Louis Rams | 102.4 | 0.89 | 0.40 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 128.9 | 1.39 | 0.45 |
| Tennessee Titans | 124.1 | 1.27 | 0.42 |
| Washington Redskins | 130.4 | 1.32 | 0.29 |
| DEFENSE | YDS ALLOWED | PTS ALLOWED | TURNOVERS |
| Arizona Cardinals | 326.4 | 21.9 | 0.01 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 303.8 | 20.4 | -0.05 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 297.2 | 21.0 | 0.08 |
| Buffalo Bills | 293.6 | 22.0 | -0.35 |
| Carolina Panthers | 323.0 | 22.6 | 0.05 |
| Chicago Bears | 284.4 | 20.1 | 0.50 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 291.0 | 22.4 | 0.06 |
| Cleveland Browns | 356.8 | 26.8 | 0.45 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 276.3 | 20.1 | -0.34 |
| Denver Broncos | 322.5 | 20.9 | -0.88 |
| Detroit Lions | 356.5 | 26.0 | -0.84 |
| Green Bay Packers | 311.4 | 25.1 | 0.63 |
| Houston Texans | 327.4 | 22.2 | -0.45 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 335.3 | 23.7 | 0.41 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 310.7 | 22.2 | 0.01 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 349.3 | 23.8 | 0.35 |
| Miami Dolphins | 306.8 | 19.6 | -0.25 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 293.6 | 19.9 | -0.01 |
| New England Patriots | 336.7 | 25.3 | 0.25 |
| New Orleans Saints | 314.1 | 22.8 | -0.63 |
| New York Giants | 306.8 | 23.0 | -0.01 |
| New York Jets | 306.0 | 23.5 | -0.45 |
| Oakland Raiders | 317.3 | 21.5 | 0.88 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 312.4 | 20.2 | -0.08 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 227.4 | 15.1 | -0.06 |
| San Diego Chargers | 302.3 | 20.2 | -0.41 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 299.4 | 20.1 | 0.34 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 344.3 | 24.1 | -0.63 |
| St. Louis Rams | 324.4 | 21.4 | -0.50 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 278.8 | 18.3 | 0.84 |
| Tennessee Titans | 299.5 | 19.7 | 0.45 |
| Washington Redskins | 269.5 | 20.0 | 0.63 |
| YDS/PASS | YDS/PLAY | YDS/PT | QB RATING | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8.0 | 5.5 | 13.4 | 97.3 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.1 | 5.3 | 14.3 | 90.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7.1 | 5.0 | 15.5 | 87.7 |
| Buffalo Bills | 7.6 | 5.3 | 14.6 | 94.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 6.4 | 4.9 | 14.9 | 83.7 |
| Chicago Bears | 7.0 | 4.9 | 15.1 | 93.6 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5.7 | 3.7 | 15.0 | 79.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 7.1 | 5.5 | 14.7 | 91.9 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7.3 | 5.2 | 14.9 | 89.9 |
| Denver Broncos | 7.3 | 5.4 | 14.8 | 88.0 |
| Detroit Lions | 6.8 | 5.0 | 15.2 | 80.9 |
| Green Bay Packers | 7.0 | 5.0 | 13.8 | 93.5 |
| Houston Texans | 7.3 | 5.6 | 13.3 | 92.7 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6.9 | 4.8 | 14.9 | 93.8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.4 | 4.9 | 14.8 | 97.1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6.6 | 5.0 | 13.4 | 90.6 |
| Miami Dolphins | 8.0 | 5.5 | 13.3 | 103.1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6.9 | 5.1 | 14.0 | 86.2 |
| New England Patriots | 7.0 | 4.7 | 15.6 | 94.4 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.2 | 5.5 | 12.4 | 90.5 |
| New York Giants | 6.8 | 5.1 | 14.9 | 89.5 |
| New York Jets | 6.5 | 4.7 | 15.2 | 82.9 |
| Oakland Raiders | 6.5 | 5.1 | 15.4 | 89.1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.3 | 4.7 | 14.1 | 81.2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.1 | 4.7 | 13.0 | 92.3 |
| San Diego Chargers | 8.1 | 5.6 | 14.2 | 100.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6.6 | 4.6 | 13.8 | 88.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5.9 | 4.7 | 13.4 | 76.5 |
| St. Louis Rams | 6.8 | 5.0 | 14.2 | 87.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.3 | 5.4 | 13.7 | 102.9 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7.0 | 5.0 | 13.0 | 92.0 |
| Washington Redskins | 7.4 | 5.1 | 14.3 | 102.5 |
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Week 12: Predictions
My apologies... I'll be leaving out the Dallas game again this week.
Update (11:58 a.m.): Posted DAL game. Use at your own risk.
CIN at PIT -11, 34.5
CIN: 15.15
PIT: 22.40
Winner: PIT, 72%
Spread: CIN +11, 65%
O/U: OVER, 58%
HOU at CLE -3, 50.5
HOU: 26.82
CLE: 22.22
Winner: HOU, 62%
Spread: HOU +3, 72%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
TB -8.5 at DET, 42
TB: 26.05
DET: 18.34
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: DET +8.5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NYJ at TEN -5, 40.5
NYJ: 19.68
TEN: 23.49
Winner: TEN, 63%
Spread: NYJ +5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 56%
BUF -3 at KC, 43.5
BUF: 23.84
KC: 21.98
Winner: BUF, 55%
Spread: KC +3, 58%
O/U: OVER, 57%
CHI -8.5 at STL, 43
CHI: 21.42
STL: 20.08
Winner: CHI, 57%
Spread: STL +8.5, 72%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
NE at MIA, 42
NE: 19.64
MIA: 25.26
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA, 67%
O/U: OVER, 53%
MIN at JAX -2.5, 40.5
MIN: 22.23
JAX: 19.91
Winner: MIN, 55%
Spread: MIN +2.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%
PHI at BAL -1, 39.5
PHI: 21.02
BAL: 20.18
Winner: PHI, 52%
Spread: PHI +1, 55%
O/U: OVER, 52%
OAK at DEN -9.5, 42.5
OAK: 20.94
DEN: 21.48
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: OAK +9.5, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
CAR at ATL -1, 43
CAR: 20.36
ATL: 22.58
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL -1, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
NYG -3 at ARI, 48
NYG: 21.91
ARI: 22.96
Winner: ARI, 54%
Spread: ARI +3, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
WAS -3.5 at SEA, 40.5
WAS: 24.11
SEA: 20.04
Winner: WAS, 62%
Spread: WAS -3.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 59%
IND at SD -3, 49.5
IND: 20.25
SD: 23.66
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: SD -3, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 68%
GB at NO -2.5, 51.5
GB: 22.80
NO: 25.11
Winner: NO, 55%
Spread: NO -2.5, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 63%
Update (11:58 a.m.): Posted DAL game. Use at your own risk.
CIN at PIT -11, 34.5
CIN: 15.15
PIT: 22.40
Winner: PIT, 72%
Spread: CIN +11, 65%
O/U: OVER, 58%
HOU at CLE -3, 50.5
HOU: 26.82
CLE: 22.22
Winner: HOU, 62%
Spread: HOU +3, 72%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
TB -8.5 at DET, 42
TB: 26.05
DET: 18.34
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: DET +8.5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 54%
NYJ at TEN -5, 40.5
NYJ: 19.68
TEN: 23.49
Winner: TEN, 63%
Spread: NYJ +5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 56%
BUF -3 at KC, 43.5
BUF: 23.84
KC: 21.98
Winner: BUF, 55%
Spread: KC +3, 58%
O/U: OVER, 57%
CHI -8.5 at STL, 43
CHI: 21.42
STL: 20.08
Winner: CHI, 57%
Spread: STL +8.5, 72%
O/U: UNDER, 55%
NE at MIA, 42
NE: 19.64
MIA: 25.26
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA, 67%
O/U: OVER, 53%
MIN at JAX -2.5, 40.5
MIN: 22.23
JAX: 19.91
Winner: MIN, 55%
Spread: MIN +2.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%
PHI at BAL -1, 39.5
PHI: 21.02
BAL: 20.18
Winner: PHI, 52%
Spread: PHI +1, 55%
O/U: OVER, 52%
OAK at DEN -9.5, 42.5
OAK: 20.94
DEN: 21.48
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: OAK +9.5, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 53%
CAR at ATL -1, 43
CAR: 20.36
ATL: 22.58
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL -1, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 52%
NYG -3 at ARI, 48
NYG: 21.91
ARI: 22.96
Winner: ARI, 54%
Spread: ARI +3, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 62%
WAS -3.5 at SEA, 40.5
WAS: 24.11
SEA: 20.04
Winner: WAS, 62%
Spread: WAS -3.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 59%
IND at SD -3, 49.5
IND: 20.25
SD: 23.66
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: SD -3, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 68%
GB at NO -2.5, 51.5
GB: 22.80
NO: 25.11
Winner: NO, 55%
Spread: NO -2.5, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 63%
| Straight | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 5 | 8 | 62.5% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 6 | 50.0% | |
| 70-79 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 9 | 15 | 60.0% | |
| Spread | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 3 | 8 | 37.5% | |
| 60-69 | 1 | 4 | 25.0% | |
| 70-79 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 6 | 15 | 40.0% | |
| Total | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 10 | 12 | 83.3% | |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3 | 33.3% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 11 | 15 | 73.3% |
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Week 11: Results
Not a bad Week 11. Knocked the O/U out of the park. I left out the DAL game because I felt like that wasn't a reliable game. I missed the Spread but hit the O/U for that game, so it balances out.
| Straight | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 6 | 7 | 85.7% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4 | 75.0% | |
| 70-79 | 2 | 3 | 66.7% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 11 | 14 | 78.6% | |
| Spread | % | Wins | Games | Win % |
| 50-59 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | |
| 60-69 | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 7 | 15 | 46.7% | |
| Total | Wins | Games | Win % | |
| 50-59 | 9 | 12 | 75.0% | |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3 | 33.3% | |
| 70-79 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | |
| 80-89 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| 90-100 | 0 | 0 | --- | |
| Total | 10 | 16 | 62.5% |
Monday, November 17, 2008
NFLSim Stats vs. Actual NFL Stats
I'm sure everyone's curious to see how NFLSim actually compares to real life. These are the overall results so far. First, I'll post the comparison of NFLSim averages to NFL averages. Later, I'll post a team-by-team comparison to see how well it works on a smaller scale. I'm only going to focus on the main stats: passing, rushing, and game stats. I'll put up my average alongside the real stats. When you average the stats from all of the teams, the total offensive averages are the same as the defensive averages.
Many stats are very close to reality, some aren't as close. I know many of you out there are interested in sports statistics and many are interested in fantasy football, so this is for you guys. NFLSim is good, but it's not perfect. This is an opportunity for everyone to get a better understanding of what it does as well as for myself to make improvements.
I encourage everyone to email other NFL simulators to find out how they're doing, then post that over here for a comparison. If you're going to be following their models, you should know how those models actually perform.
These numbers tell me that for the most part, everything is going very well. Some changes I need to make include: more passes, decrease the average rush yards, decrease fumble %, and adjust 3rd down play selection. No major changes, just little tweaks. Otherwise, things are going swimmingly. Send me some feedback, I'd like to hear what everyone thinks.
Many stats are very close to reality, some aren't as close. I know many of you out there are interested in sports statistics and many are interested in fantasy football, so this is for you guys. NFLSim is good, but it's not perfect. This is an opportunity for everyone to get a better understanding of what it does as well as for myself to make improvements.
I encourage everyone to email other NFL simulators to find out how they're doing, then post that over here for a comparison. If you're going to be following their models, you should know how those models actually perform.
These numbers tell me that for the most part, everything is going very well. Some changes I need to make include: more passes, decrease the average rush yards, decrease fumble %, and adjust 3rd down play selection. No major changes, just little tweaks. Otherwise, things are going swimmingly. Send me some feedback, I'd like to hear what everyone thinks.
| PASSING | ||
| ATT/GAME | NFLSim | NFL |
| Average | 27.2 | 32.4 |
| COMP/G | ||
| Average | 17.0 | 19.8 |
| COMP % | ||
| Average | 62.3% | 61.3% |
| YDS/G | ||
| Average | 192.2 | 212.9 |
| YDS/PASS | ||
| Average | 7.06 | 6.97 |
| PASS TD/G | ||
| Average | 1.60 | 1.30 |
| INT/G | ||
| Average | 0.79 | 0.90 |
| SACK/G | ||
| Average | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| QB RATING | ||
| Average | 91.0 | 83.6 |
| RUSHING | ||
| ATT/GAME | NFLSim | NFL |
| Average | 27.6 | 27.3 |
| YDS/G | ||
| Average | 118.4 | 112.3 |
| YDS/RUSH | ||
| Average | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| RUSH TD/G | ||
| Average | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| FUM/G | ||
| Average | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| GAME STATS | ||
| PTS/G | NFLSim | NFL |
| Average | 22.9 | 22.2 |
| PLAYS/G | ||
| Average | 60.3 | 61.8 |
| TOTAL YDS/G | ||
| Average | 310.6 | 325.2 |
| YDS/PLAY | ||
| Average | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| 3rd DN % | ||
| Average | 25.8% | 39.4% |
| YDS/PT | ||
| Average | 13.6 | 14.9 |
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