I've noticed that as the number of bets increases, the success of BOA increases, so I'll put up 30 bets this time.
1-TEN, 2-DEN, 3-SF, 4-NYJ, 5-TB, 6-ATL, 7-JAX, 8-CIN, 9-SD, 10-BUF, 11-DAL, 12-PHI, 13-BAL
| BET | BOA ODDS | VEGAS PAYOUT | % of BANKROLL | PAYOUT |
| 10 | 82.00% | 1.25 | 5.73% | 7.16 |
| 8 | 78.00% | 1.53 | 5.39% | 8.25 |
| 1 | 74.00% | 1.61 | 4.90% | 7.90 |
| 6 | 65.00% | 3.70 | 4.71% | 17.42 |
| 3 | 65.00% | 3.00 | 4.52% | 13.56 |
| 8,10 | 63.96% | 1.91 | 3.82% | 7.31 |
| 6,10 | 53.30% | 4.63 | 3.66% | 16.94 |
| 6,8 | 50.70% | 5.66 | 3.56% | 20.15 |
| 1,10 | 60.68% | 2.01 | 3.49% | 7.02 |
| 3,10 | 53.30% | 3.75 | 3.46% | 12.98 |
| 1,8 | 57.72% | 2.46 | 3.44% | 8.47 |
| 3,8 | 50.70% | 4.59 | 3.39% | 15.55 |
| 2 | 67.00% | 1.21 | 3.37% | 4.07 |
| 13 | 55.00% | 2.90 | 3.35% | 9.71 |
| 1,6 | 48.10% | 5.96 | 3.34% | 19.89 |
| 1,3 | 48.10% | 4.83 | 3.17% | 15.29 |
| 3,6 | 42.25% | 11.10 | 3.14% | 34.86 |
| 6,8,10 | 41.57% | 7.08 | 2.82% | 19.98 |
| 3,8,10 | 41.57% | 5.74 | 2.66% | 15.27 |
| 1,6,10 | 39.44% | 7.45 | 2.65% | 19.76 |
| 2,6 | 43.55% | 4.48 | 2.62% | 11.74 |
| 1,6,8 | 37.52% | 9.11 | 2.60% | 23.69 |
| 1,8,10 | 47.33% | 3.08 | 2.56% | 7.89 |
| 8,13 | 42.90% | 4.44 | 2.55% | 11.29 |
| 12 | 57.00% | 1.59 | 2.54% | 4.04 |
| 10,13 | 45.10% | 3.63 | 2.54% | 9.20 |
| 3,6,10 | 34.65% | 13.88 | 2.54% | 35.21 |
| 6,13 | 35.75% | 10.73 | 2.52% | 27.07 |
| 1,3,10 | 39.44% | 6.04 | 2.49% | 15.05 |
| 1,3,8 | 37.52% | 7.39 | 2.46% | 18.21 |
After seeing last weeks excelent results with predicting winners, and not so great results with betting, which came down to the Patriots loss. It seems you are putting yourself in the same position this week with Buffalo being apart of 13 of the 30 bets.
ReplyDeleteDoes the BOA have anything that calculates risk or is it just trying to maximize profit? Maybe trying a simple equation, that X dollars can be bet on any team. Or since you worked at a hedge fund, you should know some portfolio risk equations.
I don't know, it's just my opinion, but it seems that too much is riding on that one game.
That's a great point. BOA doesn't directly look at risk. It indirectly factors it in when it determines the percentage of bankroll to bet.
ReplyDeleteIn light of the Patriot loss, I've gone back to look at how the number of bets effects the payouts when teams lose. For this week, when betting those 30 bets posted, if Buffalo is the only team that loses - despite being in nearly half the bets - you'll see a +171% return. If the top 200 bets are made, you'll see a return of 474%. If all 3000 bets are made (BOA calculated 3000 good bets), the return will be 1378%. This is completely because of the different amounts wagered on bets with different odds.
***If a favorite loses, the return increases as the number of bets increase.
***If an underdog loses, the return decreases as the number of bets increase.
I think it would be important for me to write some code to analyze the returns when every combination of teams loses, for different numbers of total bets. That might allow me to further refine BOA on a risk management basis. Maybe to determine the ideal number of bets to make based on the probabilities and payouts. Or set a cap on the amount of bankroll that can be devoted to a single team.
Bearing in mind that the number of good bets ranges from the 1000's to the 10,000's (and at most, I've only posted 30, for logistical reasons), it may not be feasible to act on that number of bets.
I'll see what I can do this weekend. Until then, maybe skip betting according to BOA, or limit it to an amount you're willing to lose. Better safe than sorry.
Thanks for your concern. I'll do what I can to make BOA as safe and efficient as possible.
If a moneyline is a good bet, the corresponding pointspread would have to be a good bet as well....Seems like a red flag to me when you like one but not the other on all of your bets.
ReplyDeleteBlueCards
BlueCards, I'm not sure I totally understand your comment, but I'll try to answer it anyway.
ReplyDeleteIf JAX is a 7 pt favorite over HOU, just because I think JAX will win, it doesn't mean that I think JAX will beat the spread. They may win by less than 7 points most of the time, meaning they don't cover the spread, who knows.
If I think SF, a 6 point dog can beat NO, that necessarily means that SF is predicted to beat the spread.
So if I think that SF will beat the spread and I think that SF will win, consider the payouts. I can either make a bet against the spread with the expectation to win with a payout of 1.91 or I can make a moneyline bet with the expectation to win with a payout of 3.00.
The probability of SF to win outright is 65%. The probability of SF to beat the spread is unknown because I'm deciding not to post it. It can be assumed that the probability of SF to beat the spread is greater than 65%. But is the probability greater enough to cover the difference between the 1.91 and 3.00 payout?
If you want to bet the spreads when NFLSim picks an underdog, go for it. Though you may not be getting the most probabilistically favorable bet.
I don't understand why Denver is a bet. NFLSim gives them just a 67% chance at a su win on Sunday. That means the moneyline in vegas should be Denver -203. However, this is not what we see. In fact, at this moment the line is Denver -415.
ReplyDeleteBOA is betting on a bad line here. It should like KC +375.
You're right in the case of single bets, but when it comes to BOA, things are slightly different. For a single bet, KC would be better. Since DEN is 67%, the break-even odds would be 1.49. Vegas is only offering 1.20.
ReplyDeleteBOA relies virtually entirely on parlays. To win a parlay, you need to win every single bet. For that reason, I choose to only put through bets that NFLSim favors.
I ran BOA again with KC in place of DEN. The first bet that had KC was bet #76 (76st best bet), the next bet that had KC was #96. In other words, parlays with a team that has a 33% chance to win don't work very well.
My mathematical intuition tells me that the end result, as in amount possibly won or loss, would probably be the same despite the team you choose. But that would only be the case when you can make all of the 1000's of possible bets. (You hit more parlays with lower payouts with DEN, but the fewer, high payout, parlays you hit with KC make up the difference.)
Again, that's only if you make 1000's of bets. Since that's not feasible, the best option is to go with the favored team because that team is more likely to win. You either win a parlay or you don't.
I think putting 5% of your bankroll on any given event is too much. Similarly having one team involved in so many bets, especially so many parlays, a significant portion of your bankroll is at risk. I think long-term sports betting should be approached like investing, with a stable, disciplined approach. I would suggest 1-2% maximum exposure on any one event.
ReplyDeleteYou're right. I forgot to mention an important point. When I said bankroll, I meant the amount you're willing to bet on a certain weekend, not the entire amount you have to bet. So if you have $600 and you're willing to bet $200, those percentages would be out of the $100. Effectively, 5% of $100, $10 would be 1.67% of $600. I apologize if that caused any confusion.
ReplyDelete