Week 2 Picks

Got an early start this week. This week's spreadsheet can be found at...

Week 2 Picks & Stats
Week 1 Picks & Stats

I add games as the week goes by, so keep checking back!
During the course of the week, if the line changes by at least 1 point I'll redo the sim. Anything less than that only changes the % by 1 or 2 pts. I'll let everyone know of the change when it happens. When I info to the post, I'll separate them at the bottom with '---'.

 Watch out for the NE NYJ game... NYJ to win at 67%. I simulated twice to be sure. The numbers make sense, but Brady is a wild card.
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The rest of the stats will be up a little later, Friday at the very latest.

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Most of the stats are up.

CLE at DEN
Check out the Denver game! I don't think I've ever seen such a mismatch. DEN averaging 26 and CLE averaging 11 points. This is the first 70+% straight up game of the season... it's the first 80+%, too. Their passing games are pretty even. It looks like it really came down to the run game. Oddly enough, they perfectly matched each other in rush yds and carries, but on average, DEN scored 1 more rushing TD than CLE. 1.5 to 0.6. Sounds like red zone efficiency to me. Watch Buckhalter and Moreno destroy Cleveland's 32nd ranked run defense.

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Alright, everything is up for the week. It looks like NFLSim went a little wild this weekend with its predictions. I'm going to chalk it up to the small amount of stats to work with. Then again, last week's predictions were a bit counter-intuitive and they worked out pretty nicely. Use these picks at your own discretion, don't rely on them for anything too important. Next week we'll be in business fo' sho'.

There's a 2nd 70+% straight up game: MIA over IND, who'da thunk it. In both passing and rushing, Miami was able to score more touchdowns.

Then again, there are some experts at ESPN and other sports news outlets that agree with some of the more eccentric picks...

Week 1 Results

NFLSim did much better than I had expected, despite using preseason stats in the simulation. My interpretation: preseason numbers actually give a rough idea of the skill of the team but don't give a good representation of the stats that the teams can put up. Though luck is always a possibility.

I'm very happy with these results. Straight-up games demonstrated the same perfect percentage phenomenon as they have for the past 2 seasons. 50% confidence games went 6-5 (54.6%), just as they were supposed to. 60% confidence games were 5-0 (100%), can't complain there. ATS games also did very well at 11-5 (68.8%). 80% confidence games were 2-0 (100%). The 70% games didn't do as well at 1-3 (25%), one of those losses was off by 1 pt if it's any consolation. Also, of the 3 picks where the prediction was for the favorite to cover the spread, all 3 were correct. O/U picks just flat-out did poorly at 6-10 (37.5%). Can't seem to figure out why from the results of the predictions. Detailed results are below (and in the Week 1 spreadsheet):

STRAIGHT UP
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	11	6	54.55%
60-69	5	5	100.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	11	68.75%
ATS
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	4	3	75.00%
60-69	6	5	83.33%
70-79	4	1	25.00%
80-89	2	2	100.00%
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	11	68.75%
O/U
CONFIDENCE	GAMES	CORRECT	% CORRECT
50-59	8	2	25.00%
60-69	8	4	50.00%
70-79	0	0	---
80-89	0	0	---
90-100	0	0	---
TOTAL	16	6	37.50%

Best pick of the week: SF at ARI -6.5 ... SF picked to win at 65% ... nice
Runner up: BUF at NE -11 ... BUF +11 at 80%
 Most disappointing pick of the week: BUF over NE at 54% ... oh well
Worst pick of the week: DEN at CIN over 42.5 ... yikes

For the most part, the stats looked pretty good for a general idea of how the teams performed. Since the stats are based on the averages of hundreds of simulated games, they are exactly that - a general idea. You can't expect them to be perfectly accurate for all of the teams, but you can expect an overall trending to those numbers. Then again, sometimes NFLSim gets pretty close. Like the Arizona run game.

NFLSim: 15 attempts for 54 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per attempt, longest run of 16.5 yards. Probably no touchdown, probably no fumble. Real game: 17 att for 40 yds, 2.4 yds/att, long of 15 yds, no TD, no fum.

Or how about the Browns' Game Stats; NFLSim: 17.6 pts, 54.8 plays, 268.6 yds, 4.9 yds/play. Real game: 20 pts, 60 plays, 268.0 yds, 4.5 yds/play. Holy crap! NFLSim was 0.6 yards away from the actual total yards!


That's all the analysis for this week. If you see something you like or something you don't like, or if you just want to say hi, feel free to email me at simcapper@gmail.com.

Week 1 Picks

Ok, I couldn't resist. Here some week 1 picks. These are based on preseason data, they are for fun only. I don't recommend using these for monetary purposes

This spreadsheet holds all of the picks and stats in nice, easy-to-read tables. If it doesn't work or if a different format makes more sense, let me know. Keep checking back because this sheet will be updated throughout the week. If you don't see a game up on Wednesday, check it again on Friday.

(The picks are highlighted, everything else is for your fantasy team)
Week 1 Stats & Picks



Again, this is based on preseason data which is not a good indicator of the regular season.

Update 2

Black Box Sports is now Sim Capper.

All of the website urls (blackboxsports.blogspot.com, nflblackbox.blogspot.com, nbablackbox.blogspot.com) still work and will still take you where you want to go. But now the main Black Box Sports site can be accessed by the url www.simcapper.com.

The new email is simcapper@gmail.com.

Jonathan
The Sim Capper

Update

To clear up any confusion:

The new website will be www.simcapper.com when I get around to setting it up.

Until then, everything will continue to be posted here at nflblackbox.blogspot.com. So keep coming to the NFL Black Box blog until the website opens up.

The first predictions will be up on this site a few days before week 2.

Are you ready for some football???

The Sim Capper (Black Box Sports)

Black Box Sports is now The Sim Capper

Congratulations Jeff P. The Sim Capper is the winner!

Runners up: Jared R. - Cognition Sports; Mike R. - Neural Net Bets

Thanks for all the great submissions, I appreciate your help!

The new website will be www.simcapper.com. Short and sweet. The website isn't set up yet, but expect its launch in a few days. Otherwise, everything will remain the same. Same great picks, same great rankings, same great content, awesome new name.

Any feedback?

Jonathan
The Sim Capper

Black Box Sports Name Change Contest (Win $50)

Hi all,

I think it may be time to move to a real website. Unfortunately, blackboxsports.com is already taken ... though they haven't updated their site in over a year (as far as I can tell) ... what a waste of a great name.

Remember, there are no plans to charge for the use of my Black Box Sports. NFL and NBA Black Box will remain totally free! I will always be available to answer your questions and I will try my damnedest to update the site every week in a timely fashion.

I'm asking you fine gents (any ladies out there?) to think of a new name for Black Box Sports. I'm one of the (un)lucky 80% of unemployed college grads, so I can't offer a huge prize to the winner. How does $20 $50 sound? $20 $50 goes to the winner of the Black Box Sports name change contest.

The goal is to think of an edgy name that (prefferably) alludes to computers/simulations and appeals to your demographic. When people hear your name, they're curious, they have to check out the site, and once they do, they're so intrigued by the idea of an accurate football simulation that they're back next week just to see how it did.

Submit your entry as a comment in this post or send it to blackboxsports@gmail.com. You can submit as many names as you want. The more names you submit, the better your chance to win. It's free to enter and you can win $20 $50. If you post it, please post using a Google or Aim account or with your email or something so I can contact you if you win. And be sure that "yourentry".com is available.

The Contest: Submit a new name for Black Box Sports
The Prize: $20 $50 via Paypal
The Deadline: Midnight of August 31, 2009
Announcement of the Winner: September 1, 2009