NBA Black Box

NBA Black Box is officially underway. I've been posting for a couple weeks and things are looking great. Overall, on the season, NBA Black Box is 120-31 (79.5%) picking the winner, 58-31 (65.2%) ATS, and 22-7 (75.9%) when picking the underdog to win (great for moneyline bet). Check it out at nbablackbox.blogspot.com. Picks go up daily, I try to put them up as early as I can. Visit everyday and tell all your buddies. As usual, everything is 100% free.

Thanksgiving Predictions

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Eat a lot, watch a lot of football, and have fun not working. Good luck!

Wow, what a hectic week. Traveling + holiday + family is not conducive to running a time-sensitive operation.

ARI at PHI -3, 46.5
ARI: 21.23
PHI: 24.03
Winner: PHI, 56%
Spread: ARI +3, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

SEA at DAL -13, 47
SEA: 19.00
DAL: 23.36
Winner: DAL, 64%
Spread: SEA +13, 76%
O/U: UNDER, 67%

TEN -11.5 at DET, 44
TEN: 22.78
DET: 17.43
Winner: TEN, 64%
Spread: DET +11.5, 72%
O/U: UNDER, 64%

SF at BUF -6.5, 43
SF: 20.18
BUF: 24.63
Winner: BUF, 60%
Spread: SF +6.5, 43%
O/U: OVER, 51%

BAL -7 at CIN, 36
BAL: 21.92
CIN: 16.89
Winner: BAL, 61%
Spread: CIN +6, 61%
O/U: OVER, 56%

IND -5 at CLE, 45
IND: 20.99
CLE: 21.90
Winner: CLE, 51%
Spread: CLE +5, 68%
O/U: UNDER, 61%

CAR at GB -3, 42
CAR: 22.87
GB: 22.31
Winner: GB, 51%
Spread: CAR +3, 59%
O/U: OVER, 57%

MIA -9 at STL, 45
MIA: 27.31
STL: 18.77
Winner: MIA, 74%
Spread: STL +9, 54%
O/U: OVER, 51%

NO at TB -4, 46.5
NO: 21.37
TB: 22.46
Winner: NO, 51%
Spread: NO +4, 62%
O/U: UNDER, 60%

NYG -3.5 at WAS, 41.5
NYG: 19.63
WAS: 22.39
Winner: WAS, 57%
Spread: WAS +3.5, 70%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

ATL at SD -4, 49
ATL: 22.59
SD: 26.49
Winner: SD, 61%
Spread: ATL +4, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

PIT at NE -1, 40
PIT: 17.76
NE: 22.53
Winner: NE, 62%
Spread: NE -1, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 51%

DEN at NYJ -8, 48
DEN: 20.64
NYJ: 26.89
Winner: NYJ, 68%
Spread: DEN +8, 59%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

KC at OAK -3, 41.5
KC: 20.09
OAK: 25.09
Winner: OAK, 63%
Spread: OAK -3, 56%
O/U: OVER, 56%

CHI at MIN -3, 41
CHI: 19.48
MIN: 20.54
Winner: MIN, 54%
Spread: CHI +3, 58%
O/U: UNDER, 58%

JAX at HOU-3, 48
JAX: 21.37
HOU: 27.89
Winner: HOU, 67%
Spread: HOU -3, 57%
O/U: OVER, 52%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	2	6	33.3%
	60-69	4	9	44.4%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	16	43.8%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	6	9	66.7%
	60-69	2	4	50.0%
	70-79	0	3	0.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	8	16	50.0%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	12	33.3%
	60-69	3	4	75.0%
	70-79	0	0	---
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	16	43.8%

Week 12: Fantasy Stats

Here are the passing, rushing, and defensive stats for all of the teams, along with a few extra stats. Hopefully, this will help with those tough fantasy decisions.

PASSING	PASS YDS	PASS TD	INT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	235.2	1.86	0.95	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	170.2	1.46	0.65	90.5
Baltimore Ravens	170.4	1.26	0.67	87.7
Buffalo Bills	221.6	1.70	1.06	94.5
Carolina Panthers	174.7	1.39	0.81	83.7
Chicago Bears	211.5	1.67	0.60	93.6
Cincinnati Bengals	165.0	1.20	0.91	79.5
Cleveland Browns	213.5	1.85	0.66	91.9
Dallas Cowboys	197.8	1.55	0.88	89.9
Denver Broncos	215.9	1.62	1.12	88.0
Detroit Lions	196.9	1.48	1.10	80.9
Green Bay Packers	218.1	1.81	0.66	93.5
Houston Texans	236.5	2.01	1.31	92.7
Indianapolis Colts	241.3	1.72	0.68	93.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	190.4	1.49	0.51	97.1
Kansas City Chiefs	194.1	1.64	0.55	90.6
Miami Dolphins	221.0	1.99	0.70	103.1
Minnesota Vikings	178.6	1.46	0.90	86.2
New England Patriots	206.6	1.62	0.61	94.4
New Orleans Saints	220.6	2.01	1.04	90.5
New York Giants	192.3	1.53	0.80	89.5
New York Jets	195.1	1.42	1.22	82.9
Oakland Raiders	176.5	1.36	0.48	89.1
Philadelphia Eagles	223.3	1.81	1.18	81.2
Pittsburgh Steelers	172.7	1.47	0.75	92.3
San Diego Chargers	225.0	1.85	0.95	100.5
San Francisco 49ers	178.4	1.49	0.74	88.5
Seattle Seahawks	154.3	1.17	0.79	76.5
St. Louis Rams	181.9	1.59	0.88	87.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	227.5	1.98	0.49	102.9
Tennessee Titans	181.9	1.50	0.65	92.0
Washington Redskins	213.9	1.65	0.35	102.5

RUSHING	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	FUM
Arizona Cardinals	71.7	0.85	0.17
Atlanta Falcons	152.8	1.37	0.34
Baltimore Ravens	142.0	1.30	0.53
Buffalo Bills	127.7	1.25	0.59
Carolina Panthers	129.1	1.00	0.19
Chicago Bears	112.9	0.95	0.30
Cincinnati Bengals	62.5	0.52	0.39
Cleveland Browns	113.9	0.90	0.37
Dallas Cowboys	101.6	0.85	0.44
Denver Broncos	101.4	1.07	0.44
Detroit Lions	81.9	0.73	0.44
Green Bay Packers	96.0	0.96	0.49
Houston Texans	120.3	1.26	0.44
Indianapolis Colts	61.1	0.63	0.09
Jacksonville Jaguars	103.2	0.98	0.54
Kansas City Chiefs	99.5	1.12	0.36
Miami Dolphins	115.7	1.21	0.35
Minnesota Vikings	132.1	1.20	0.47
New England Patriots	100.2	0.84	0.34
New Orleans Saints	90.7	1.15	0.44
New York Giants	134.1	1.10	0.64
New York Jets	104.4	0.88	0.63
Oakland Raiders	146.0	1.24	0.59
Philadelphia Eagles	73.9	0.65	0.19
Pittsburgh Steelers	118.3	1.25	0.36
San Diego Chargers	110.3	1.15	0.23
San Francisco 49ers	97.9	0.86	0.70
Seattle Seahawks	115.1	1.04	0.38
St. Louis Rams	102.4	0.89	0.40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	128.9	1.39	0.45
Tennessee Titans	124.1	1.27	0.42
Washington Redskins	130.4	1.32	0.29

DEFENSE	YDS ALLOWED	PTS ALLOWED	TURNOVERS
Arizona Cardinals	326.4	21.9	0.01
Atlanta Falcons	303.8	20.4	-0.05
Baltimore Ravens	297.2	21.0	0.08
Buffalo Bills	293.6	22.0	-0.35
Carolina Panthers	323.0	22.6	0.05
Chicago Bears	284.4	20.1	0.50
Cincinnati Bengals	291.0	22.4	0.06
Cleveland Browns	356.8	26.8	0.45
Dallas Cowboys	276.3	20.1	-0.34
Denver Broncos	322.5	20.9	-0.88
Detroit Lions	356.5	26.0	-0.84
Green Bay Packers	311.4	25.1	0.63
Houston Texans	327.4	22.2	-0.45
Indianapolis Colts	335.3	23.7	0.41
Jacksonville Jaguars	310.7	22.2	0.01
Kansas City Chiefs	349.3	23.8	0.35
Miami Dolphins	306.8	19.6	-0.25
Minnesota Vikings	293.6	19.9	-0.01
New England Patriots	336.7	25.3	0.25
New Orleans Saints	314.1	22.8	-0.63
New York Giants	306.8	23.0	-0.01
New York Jets	306.0	23.5	-0.45
Oakland Raiders	317.3	21.5	0.88
Philadelphia Eagles	312.4	20.2	-0.08
Pittsburgh Steelers	227.4	15.1	-0.06
San Diego Chargers	302.3	20.2	-0.41
San Francisco 49ers	299.4	20.1	0.34
Seattle Seahawks	344.3	24.1	-0.63
St. Louis Rams	324.4	21.4	-0.50
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	278.8	18.3	0.84
Tennessee Titans	299.5	19.7	0.45
Washington Redskins	269.5	20.0	0.63

	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	8.0	5.5	13.4	97.3
Atlanta Falcons	7.1	5.3	14.3	90.5
Baltimore Ravens	7.1	5.0	15.5	87.7
Buffalo Bills	7.6	5.3	14.6	94.5
Carolina Panthers	6.4	4.9	14.9	83.7
Chicago Bears	7.0	4.9	15.1	93.6
Cincinnati Bengals	5.7	3.7	15.0	79.5
Cleveland Browns	7.1	5.5	14.7	91.9
Dallas Cowboys	7.3	5.2	14.9	89.9
Denver Broncos	7.3	5.4	14.8	88.0
Detroit Lions	6.8	5.0	15.2	80.9
Green Bay Packers	7.0	5.0	13.8	93.5
Houston Texans	7.3	5.6	13.3	92.7
Indianapolis Colts	6.9	4.8	14.9	93.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.4	4.9	14.8	97.1
Kansas City Chiefs	6.6	5.0	13.4	90.6
Miami Dolphins	8.0	5.5	13.3	103.1
Minnesota Vikings	6.9	5.1	14.0	86.2
New England Patriots	7.0	4.7	15.6	94.4
New Orleans Saints	7.2	5.5	12.4	90.5
New York Giants	6.8	5.1	14.9	89.5
New York Jets	6.5	4.7	15.2	82.9
Oakland Raiders	6.5	5.1	15.4	89.1
Philadelphia Eagles	6.3	4.7	14.1	81.2
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.1	4.7	13.0	92.3
San Diego Chargers	8.1	5.6	14.2	100.5
San Francisco 49ers	6.6	4.6	13.8	88.5
Seattle Seahawks	5.9	4.7	13.4	76.5
St. Louis Rams	6.8	5.0	14.2	87.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.3	5.4	13.7	102.9
Tennessee Titans	7.0	5.0	13.0	92.0
Washington Redskins	7.4	5.1	14.3	102.5

Week 12: Predictions

My apologies... I'll be leaving out the Dallas game again this week.
Update (11:58 a.m.): Posted DAL game. Use at your own risk.

CIN at PIT -11, 34.5
CIN: 15.15
PIT: 22.40
Winner: PIT, 72%
Spread: CIN +11, 65%
O/U: OVER, 58%

HOU at CLE -3, 50.5
HOU: 26.82
CLE: 22.22
Winner: HOU, 62%
Spread: HOU +3, 72%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

TB -8.5 at DET, 42
TB: 26.05
DET: 18.34
Winner: TB, 69%
Spread: DET +8.5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 54%

NYJ at TEN -5, 40.5
NYJ: 19.68
TEN: 23.49
Winner: TEN, 63%
Spread: NYJ +5, 53%
O/U: OVER, 56%

BUF -3 at KC, 43.5
BUF: 23.84
KC: 21.98
Winner: BUF, 55%
Spread: KC +3, 58%
O/U: OVER, 57%

CHI -8.5 at STL, 43
CHI: 21.42
STL: 20.08
Winner: CHI, 57%
Spread: STL +8.5, 72%
O/U: UNDER, 55%

NE at MIA, 42
NE: 19.64
MIA: 25.26
Winner: MIA, 67%
Spread: MIA, 67%
O/U: OVER, 53%

MIN at JAX -2.5, 40.5
MIN: 22.23
JAX: 19.91
Winner: MIN, 55%
Spread: MIN +2.5, 59%
O/U: OVER, 55%

PHI at BAL -1, 39.5
PHI: 21.02
BAL: 20.18
Winner: PHI, 52%
Spread: PHI +1, 55%
O/U: OVER, 52%

OAK at DEN -9.5, 42.5
OAK: 20.94
DEN: 21.48
Winner: DEN, 55%
Spread: OAK +9.5, 74%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

CAR at ATL -1, 43
CAR: 20.36
ATL: 22.58
Winner: ATL, 57%
Spread: ATL -1, 54%
O/U: UNDER, 52%

NYG -3 at ARI, 48
NYG: 21.91
ARI: 22.96
Winner: ARI, 54%
Spread: ARI +3, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 62%

WAS -3.5 at SEA, 40.5
WAS: 24.11
SEA: 20.04
Winner: WAS, 62%
Spread: WAS -3.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 59%

IND at SD -3, 49.5
IND: 20.25
SD: 23.66
Winner: SD, 60%
Spread: SD -3, 51%
O/U: UNDER, 68%

GB at NO -2.5, 51.5
GB: 22.80
NO: 25.11
Winner: NO, 55%
Spread: NO -2.5, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 63%

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	5	8	62.5%
	60-69	3	6	50.0%
	70-79	1	1	100.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	9	15	60.0%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	3	8	37.5%
	60-69	1	4	25.0%
	70-79	2	3	66.7%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	6	15	40.0%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	10	12	83.3%
	60-69	1	3	33.3%
	70-79	0	0	---
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	11	15	73.3%

Week 11: Results

Not a bad Week 11. Knocked the O/U out of the park. I left out the DAL game because I felt like that wasn't a reliable game. I missed the Spread but hit the O/U for that game, so it balances out.

Straight	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	6	7	85.7%
	60-69	3	4	75.0%
	70-79	2	3	66.7%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	11	14	78.6%
Spread	%	Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	4	8	50.0%
	60-69	3	7	42.9%
	70-79	0	0	---
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	7	15	46.7%
Total		Wins	Games	Win %
	50-59	9	12	75.0%
	60-69	1	3	33.3%
	70-79	0	1	0.0%
	80-89	0	0	---
	90-100	0	0	---
	Total	10	16	62.5%

NFLSim Stats vs. Actual NFL Stats

I'm sure everyone's curious to see how NFLSim actually compares to real life. These are the overall results so far. First, I'll post the comparison of NFLSim averages to NFL averages. Later, I'll post a team-by-team comparison to see how well it works on a smaller scale. I'm only going to focus on the main stats: passing, rushing, and game stats. I'll put up my average alongside the real stats. When you average the stats from all of the teams, the total offensive averages are the same as the defensive averages.

Many stats are very close to reality, some aren't as close. I know many of you out there are interested in sports statistics and many are interested in fantasy football, so this is for you guys. NFLSim is good, but it's not perfect. This is an opportunity for everyone to get a better understanding of what it does as well as for myself to make improvements.

I encourage everyone to email other NFL simulators to find out how they're doing, then post that over here for a comparison. If you're going to be following their models, you should know how those models actually perform.

These numbers tell me that for the most part, everything is going very well. Some changes I need to make include: more passes, decrease the average rush yards, decrease fumble %, and adjust 3rd down play selection. No major changes, just little tweaks. Otherwise, things are going swimmingly. Send me some feedback, I'd like to hear what everyone thinks.

PASSING
ATT/GAME	NFLSim	NFL
Average	27.2	32.4
COMP/G
Average	17.0	19.8
COMP %
Average	62.3%	61.3%
YDS/G
Average	192.2	212.9
YDS/PASS
Average	7.06	6.97
PASS TD/G
Average	1.60	1.30
INT/G
Average	0.79	0.90
SACK/G
Average	2.1	2.1
QB RATING
Average	91.0	83.6

RUSHING
ATT/GAME	NFLSim	NFL
Average	27.6	27.3
YDS/G
Average	118.4	112.3
YDS/RUSH
Average	4.3	4.1
RUSH TD/G
Average	1.2	0.9
FUM/G
Average	0.6	0.4

GAME STATS
PTS/G	NFLSim	NFL
Average	22.9	22.2
PLAYS/G
Average	60.3	61.8
TOTAL YDS/G
Average	310.6	325.2
YDS/PLAY
Average	5.2	5.3
3rd DN %
Average	25.8%	39.4%
YDS/PT
Average	13.6	14.9

Week 11: Stats

Week 11	YDS/PASS	YDS/PLAY	YDS/PT	QB RATING
Arizona Cardinals	8.22	5.52	13.70	108.29
Atlanta Falcons	7.93	5.92	14.61	105.39
Baltimore Ravens	6.50	4.44	14.86	82.55
Buffalo Bills	8.03	5.60	12.55	99.65
Carolina Panthers	8.24	5.69	13.04	104.08
Chicago Bears	5.06	4.07	12.73	64.71
Cincinnati Bengals	6.17	4.45	16.77	73.28
Cleveland Browns	6.20	4.53	15.03	83.65
Dallas Cowboys	6.45	4.60	16.68	81.16
Denver Broncos	6.76	5.17	14.54	86.81
Detroit Lions	5.72	4.30	16.50	74.13
Green Bay Packers	7.25	4.97	13.48	94.74
Houston Texans	5.86	4.54	14.02	78.42
Indianapolis Colts	7.94	5.60	13.70	98.65
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.97	4.94	14.82	88.92
Kansas City Chiefs	6.67	5.11	13.90	86.81
Miami Dolphins	7.49	5.42	13.22	94.58
Minnesota Vikings	6.16	4.62	15.26	76.51
New England Patriots	7.15	4.92	12.35	98.34
New Orleans Saints	8.01	5.76	14.63	101.83
New York Giants	6.52	5.00	14.33	81.69
New York Jets	7.34	5.40	15.38	87.26
Oakland Raiders	6.27	4.48	17.35	77.90
Philadelphia Eagles	6.70	4.95	12.76	96.44
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.41	4.86	13.89	95.48
San Diego Chargers	6.95	4.53	13.89	91.91
San Francisco 49ers	6.80	5.20	15.93	83.15
Seattle Seahawks	6.40	4.88	13.35	83.52
St. Louis Rams	5.82	4.31	14.39	76.82
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7.04	5.09	15.14	93.85
Tennessee Titans	6.50	4.77	13.70	87.08
Washington Redskins	7.25	5.42	12.59	101.63
Average	6.87	4.97	14.35	88.73

Week 11: Predictions

Believe it or not, only one upset this week: WAS over DAL, 76%, even with Tony Romeo back in the lineup. That's actually the biggest confidence for an upset this season, but I'd be a little cautious considering the recent personnel changes.

NYJ at NE -3.5, 43
NYJ: 22.10
NE: 24.59
Winner: NE, 58%
Spread: NYJ +3.5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 59%

BAL at NYG -6.5, 41.5
BAL: 19.17
NYG: 20.53
Winner: NYG, 54%
Spread: BAL +6.5, 66%
O/U: UNDER, 59%

CHI at GB -3.5, 43
CHI: 20.37
GB: 21.81
Winner: GB, 52%
Spread: CHI +3.5, 55%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

DEN at ATL -6.5, 51
DEN: 21.29
ATL: 26.10
Winner: ATL, 63%
Spread: DEN +6.5, 56%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

DET at CAR -14, 40
DET: 15.98
CAR: 26.87
Winner: CAR, 76%
Spread: DET +14, 65%
O/U: OVER, 56%

HOU at IND -9, 50.5
HOU: 21.08
IND: 24.30
Winner: IND, 62%
Spread: HOU +6, 64%
O/U: UNDER, 65%

MIN at TB -4, 38.5
MIN: 19.20
TB: 20.28
Winner: TB, 51%
Spread: MIN +4, 63%
O/U: OVER, 51%

NO -5.5 at KC, 49.5
NO: 24.99
KC: 22.22
Winner: NO, 63%
Spread: KC +5.5, 60%
O/U: UNDER, 61%

OAK at MIA -10.5, 38.5
OAK: 16.13
MIA: 25.05
Winner: MIA, 71%
Spread: OAK +10.5, 57%
O/U: OVER, 52%

PHI -9 at CIN, 41.5
PHI: 26.05
CIN: 15.76
Winner: PHI, 75% ***Seriously? A tie?
Spread: PHI -9, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 57%

ARI -3 at SEA, 47.5
ARI: 25.36
SEA: 21.40
Winner: ARI, 62%
Spread: ARI -3, 52%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

STL at SF -6.5, 44.5
STL: 18.71
SF: 19.43
Winner: SF, 54%
Spread: STL +6.5, 67%
O/U: UNDER, 70%

SD at PIT -5, 42.5
SD: 20.15
PIT: 21.15
Winner: PIT, 51%
Spread: SD +5, 62%
O/U: UNDER, 54%

TEN -3 at JAX, 39.5
TEN: 22.49
JAX: 19.69
Winner: TEN, 59%
Spread: JAX +3, 52%
O/U: OVER, 58%

DAL -1.5 at WAS, 43
DAL: 16.83
WAS: 25.59
Winner: WAS, 76%
Spread: WAS +1.5, 77%
O/U: UNDER, 53%

CLE at BUF -5, 42.5
CLE: 18.91
BUF: 26.61
Winner: BUF, 71%
Spread: BUF -5, 51%
O/U: OVER, 58%